politics

Here’s What to Watch When Trump and Kim Meet

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What to Watch For in the Trump-Kim Summit

President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un begin their historic summit Tuesday in Singapore, a meeting that could lead to peace between countries that have technically been at war for 68 years -- or swiftly end in new recriminations.

Trump has said the public will be able to tell how the summit goes by what he says afterward. If he resumes talking about his “maximum pressure” campaign to squeeze Kim’s regime, he said Thursday, “you’ll know the negotiation did not do well.”

Mike Pompeo on June 11.

Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday said “sanctions will increase” if talks don’t move in the right direction. He told reporters that the discussions are “moving quite rapidly and we anticipate they will come to their logical conclusion even more quickly than we had anticipated.”

It would’ve been hard to imagine the two leaders reaching this point just nine months ago. Trump labeled the North Korean leader “Little Rocket Man” in a speech to the UN General Assembly. Kim then called Trump a “mentally deranged U.S. dotard” and a “frightened dog.” They threatened each other with nuclear war.

What the Pageantry and Security Looked Like Ahead of the Historic Trump-Kim Summit

The stakes remain dizzyingly high and the developments are likely to come rapid-fire. Here’s a reader’s guide to some of Bloomberg’s best analysis, commentary, and breaking news ahead of the Trump-Kim summit:

What’s the schedule?

  • Kim arrived on Sunday afternoon in Singapore, and Trump followed in the evening, after attending the G-7 summit in Quebec.
  • Their first meeting will be Tuesday at 9 a.m. local time (which is Monday at 9 p.m. in New York) at the Capella Hotel, a five-star resort on Singapore’s Sentosa Island -- and a former pirate haunt. The two leaders will meet one-on-one before being joined by advisers, followed by a working lunch.

    The Capella Singapore Hotel on Sentosa Island.

    Photographer: Darren Soh/Bloomberg
  • Trump has said the meeting could go one, two, or even three days. But the White House said Monday that the president will hold a briefing at 4 p.m. local time and then depart. One thing the American president said wouldn’t make the schedule: a round of golf between the two leaders.

How we got here:

  • Kim announced late last year that his country had obtained the ability to strike the U.S. with a nuclear weapon, and soon after sought talks with South Korea on participating in the Winter Olympics. The moves defused immediate threats of military action by the U.S.
  • In March, Trump stunned the world by agreeing to meet Kim after South Korean officials told him that North Korea would suspend missile and nuclear tests, tolerate American military drills and move toward denuclearization.
  • On May 10, Trump announced that he would meet Kim on June 12 in Singapore. Two weeks later, however, he canceled the meeting in a letter to Kim, citing “open hostility” from North Korea. After he sat down with a senior adviser to the North Korean leader in the White House, Trump said on June 1 the summit would take place as previously scheduled.
  • Advance teams from North Korea and the U.S. have spent recent weeks in Singapore negotiating everything from presidential hotels to seating charts and lunch breaks during the summit.

What does Trump want?

  • Trump’s goal is “ridding the United States and the world of threats posed by North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters on June 7.
  • The U.S. is also concerned about the proliferation of North Korea’s weapons and the infrastructure supporting its nuclear program, and will want those issues addressed as part of any deal. Trump is pushing for complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization -- considered the gold standard among arms control experts.
  • Trump has also said he would raise the issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea, after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lobbied him in a meeting in Washington on Thursday.

    Trump arrives in Singapore on June 10.

    Photographer: Win McNamee/Getty Images

What does Kim want?

  • Kim will likely be eager to strike an agreement that eases sanctions and brings an end to the Korean War, while allowing him to keep at least part of his nuclear arsenal. He’s pushing for “complete denuclearization,’’ which includes removing the U.S. nuclear umbrella in Northeast Asia that protects allies South Korea and Japan.
  • Any framework agreement would likely require assurances that Kim could keep his grip on power even without nuclear weapons. South Korean President Moon Jae-in said last month that Kim was worried he couldn’t trust the U.S. to guarantee his security if he gives up his nuclear weapons.
  • The summit itself provides a major propaganda win for the North Korean dictator, elevating him on the world stage to the level of the leader of the United States. He will likely look to further end his country’s isolation by increasing ties with China, South Korea, Russia and other nations.

    Kim Jong Un and Lee Hsien Loong on June 10.

    Source: Ministry of Communications and Information Singapore via Getty Images

How likely is a breakthrough agreement?

  • Experts are skeptical. At best, the meeting will likely provide a road map for future talks, each round of which will require difficult and complex negotiations. Most important, few believe Kim is actually willing to give up the nuclear weapons that cement his grip on power.
  • Further complicating the task ahead: Trump says he wants any eventual deal to earn congressional approval, providing more assurance to Kim, and reducing the risk a future U.S. administration would reverse whatever agreement he strikes.
  • There is a chance for some history, however. Trump has openly floated the possibility of striking a peace deal formally ending the Korean War 65 years after an armistice ceased military hostilities. Such an agreement could give talks some symbolic momentum and bolster leaders in both South and North Korea politically.

What’s next

  • Following the meeting, Pompeo will travel to Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul to brief regional powers on the talks.
  • The U.S. has warned of a few surefire signs that the discussions aren’t going well: if Trump decides to abruptly end the talks shortly after they begin, or if he emerges from the discussion by renewing his call for an international “maximum pressure” campaign. The White House says it’s already identified hundreds of additional sanctions targets if negotiations break down.
  • If things go well, South Korea’s Moon may seek a trilateral summit with Trump and Kim on July 27 to mark the anniversary of the Korean War armistice signed on that day in 1953, according to South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper.
  • Trump has also said he’d consider inviting Kim to Washington for a second round of talks.

Read these stories for more context:

  • What a Trump-Kim Deal May Look Like, From Good to Bad to Worse
  • These Are the Dealmakers Behind Trump and Kim
  • Kim Jong Un’s Quest to Make North Korea Normal Again
  • Budding Kim-Moon Friendship Poses Risk to Trump Pressure Campaign
  • Trump on Collision Course With Kim Over Steps to Lift Sanctions
  • How Trump and Kim Differ on Denuclearization: QuickTake 
  • A Primer on North Korea Sanctions: QuickTake
  • Invest in North Korea! Great Upside, Cheap Labor and Oh So Risky
  • Pompeo’s Key Aide Advising Him on Negotiating with Kim Jong Un
  • Korean War, the Kim Dynasty and 12 Presidents: History in Photos 
  • Pompeo Draws Firm Line on North Korea as Summit Hangs in Balance
  • China’s Jumbo Jet Diplomacy Shows Influence in Trump-Kim Talks
  • A Rough Guide to North Korea’s Many Promises to Abandon Nukes
  • Trump Needs a Tough North Korea Deal, But Not Because of Iran
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