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Oil Market Faces Tense Wait as Iran Sanctions Too Close to Call

  • Probability of ‘snap-back’ about 50 percent: Bloomberg survey
  • Trump to decide whether to renew sanctions by May 12
Bloomberg business news

Oil to Hit $80 a Barrel in Second Quarter, Says BofA's Blanch

Global markets for equities, currencies and metals have all been whipsawed by the uncertainty over what President Donald Trump’s next geopolitical move would be. Oil’s about to have a turn.

It’s too close to call whether Trump will reinstate sanctions on Iran next month and the impact is highly uncertain, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil-market analysts. The 17 respondents saw on average a 50-50 chance of sanctions “snap-back,” which could halt anywhere between zero and 800 thousand barrels a day of exports from OPEC’s third-largest producer within the next six months.