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Investors Root for Slim Orban Victory in Hungary Vote: Scenarios

  • Simple majority for Orban’s party seen as good for stability
  • Analysts see risks in 2/3 Fidesz win, opposition coalition

Investors would prefer that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban win a small majority in Sunday’s elections to build on his economic policies but fall short of a landslide victory that could let him double down on his illiberal political agenda.

The preference for stability means the market reaction to a victory by Orban’s Fidesz party may be muted. Orban winning a simple majority, the most likely outcome, would allow him to preserve fiscal prudence and gains in economic growth and to continue funding politically-connected oligarchs.