Mexico’s Presidential Race Is Tightening, Poll Suggests

  • GEA-ISA survey has Lopez Obrador at 37%, Anaya 32%, Meade 28%
  • PRI candidate polling better in PAN’s northern stronghold

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, presidential candidate of the National Regeneration Movement Party (MORENA), smiles during a campaign rally in Mexico City, Mexico, on March 16.

Photographer: Yael Martinez/Bloomberg

Mexico’s presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is leading by only 5 percentage points in the latest opinion poll, a sign the race may be getting tighter as the July election draws near.

Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, led with 37 percent of voting intention, followed by Ricardo Anaya of the National Action Party-led coalition with 32 percent, according to pollster GEA-ISA. Ruling party candidate Jose Antonio Meade came in third with 28 percent, showed the survey, which removes undecided votes from the total. The results contrast with Bloomberg’s poll tracker, which currently shows the frontrunner 12.5 points ahead.

Who’s ahead in Mexico’s election? For Bloomberg Poll Tracker, click here.

Mexico will elect in just over three months the largest number of officials in the nation’s history. The race is gearing up to be highly contentious as violence grows and a spate of corruption scandals rock the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party. Lopez Obrador, a leftist who’s pledged to halt Mexico’s oil reform, has maintained a consistent lead, while Anaya has promised to investigate President Enrique Pena Nieto on graft allegations. Meade has also made fighting corruption part of his platform, saying he’d strip political immunity from all officials in power.

The poll showed Meade with more support than Anaya in the north, an industrial region where Anaya’s PAN party outperformed in recent elections. While GEA-ISA’s previous poll showed an even tighter race, it was conducted in November, before all of the candidates were announced. GEA-ISA interviewed 1,070 people between March 1-3. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

    Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE