Money Managers Think the Worst Is Yet to Come for S&P 500

  • 57% of investors polled by Strategas sees new lows for stocks
  • Last two corrections were followed by W-shaped recovery

BMO Capital Markets' Belski Sees 'Circle of Life' in Markets

If you think the tremors that struck equities this month have yet to play themselves out, you’re not alone.

About 57 percent of investors surveyed by Strategas Research Partners expect the S&P 500 Index to break the intraday low of 2,533 reached on Feb. 9, while the rest say the market has bottomed for the year after a two-week selloff sent the index to its first 10 percent correction since 2016. The poll, conducted Feb. 16, covered roughly 500 institutional investors.

Source: Strategas

The survey highlights elevated levels of doubt among professionals even as a weeklong advance helped the S&P 500 claw back half of its losses. That may make sense given one catalyst that triggered the selloff, rising bond yields, hasn’t gone away. Strategists from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are now warning that too much growth will set the stage for future deceleration.

Skeptics also have history on their side. In each of the last two corrections from 2015 to 2016, the S&P 500 revisited the initial lows within weeks before making a full recovery.

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