U.K. Business Lobby Says Get Used to Subdued Economic Growth

BNP Paribas Strategist Mutkin on U.K. Economy and Rates, Nov. 30

The U.K. economy’s “lukewarm” growth will continue for some time and may even weaken in coming years, according to the Confederation of British Industry.

In its latest outlook, the CBI sees expansion of 1.5 percent next year and 1.3 percent in 2019, which would be the worst annual performance since 2009, when the economy shrank.

It also said the downside risks to its projections are high, as they assume Brexit goes smoothly, with the U.K. reaching agreement on a transition deal with the European Union early next year. That would come into effect when it leaves the bloc in March 2019.

While domestic demand will stay “soft” over the period, there is support for the economy from net trade, the CBI said. That view is supported by a survey Friday showing U.K. manufacturing growth at its strongest in more than four years in November.

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