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FX Traders Read Technical Tea Leaves as Macro Drivers Stall

  • Elliott waves, stochastic indicators support dollar strength
  • Fundamentals more mixed as trade, tax reform still in flux

Photographer: Dennis Brack/Bloomberg

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The dollar’s rebound has petered out in recent days as traders remain divided on macro drivers ranging from trade and taxes to personnel picks at the Federal Reserve. But a closer look at technical indicators suggests the greenback’s resurgence might just be getting started.

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s current 12-day tour of Asia, trade has seemingly taken a backseat in the policy pecking order, while at home, Congressional consensus on tax reform appears far off. And though a December rate increase from the Fed is largely priced in at this point, the central bank is set to see a number of new appointments over the next year starting with Jerome Powell taking over as chair, making the policy path susceptible to change.