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The U.K. Is Such a Mess, Not Even Analysts Can Agree What's Going on

Britain’s political landscape is so chaotic that even those trying to cut through the noise --and provide clarity to investors -- can’t agree on what is going on.

Take for example Tuesday’s morning notes to clients by two major advisory firms -- Eurasia and Teneo Intelligence. They offer clashing views on the U.K. leader’s chances of survival and the likelihood of snap elections.

“The sexual harassment scandal engulfing Westminster makes it less likely British Prime Minister Theresa May will see through the Article 50, while Parliament’s increasingly coordinated opposition to hard Brexit make an early general election more probable,” writes Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia’s managing director and practice head for Europe.

Teneo draws the opposite conclusion:

“British PM Theresa May remains under pressure from the Westminster harassment scandal, but she remains likely to stay on –- if only due to the lack of a challenger who could unite the party behind them,” writes Carsten Nickel, its deputy director of research.

And as for the likelihood of progress in this week’s round of Brexit negotiations in Brussels?

Again, it’s a question of which analyst do you trust more: Eurasia sees no substantial progress and a reduced likelihood of a deal at the summit mid-December. Teneo’s Nickel disagrees. He sees room for optimism that November’s set of negotiations could yield further, gradual progress on issues such as citizens’ rights.”

So next time you feel dazed and confused about the political quagmire in the U.K., take comfort that you’re not alone.

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