A Rare Feat in Argentina: Pollsters Called the Election Right

BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA - OCTOBER 22: (L to R) Antonia Macri, Mauricio Macri, President of Argentina, First Lady Juliana Aguada and Gabriela Michetti, Vice President of Argentina celebrate after the Parliament elections at Bunker of Cambiemos in Costa Salguero on October 22, 2017 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Photographer: Ricardo Pristupluk/Getty Images

Pollsters called Argentina’s mid-term election right on Sunday, a rare feat after missing Brexit, Colombia’s peace referendum and the U.S. presidential election.

The question is whether traders listened to those polls last week and priced in President Mauricio Macri’s coalition gaining seats in Congress and winning the key senate spot for Buenos Aires province. Macri’s candidate Esteban Bullrich won Buenos Aires by 4 percentage points -- in line with all the major polls that forecast his victory by a margin of 2 percentage points to 4 percentage points.

Yields on Argentina’s 2026 dollar bonds are down 8 basis points on Monday morning. Equity and currency markets will open shortly.

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