Abe's Coalition May Lose Two-Thirds Majority, Poll Shows

An attendee holds a pamphlet during a Shinzo Abe election campaign rally in Sapporo, Hokkaido.

Photographer: Eiji Ohashi/Bloomberg

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition is projected to lose its two-thirds majority in Sunday’s general election, a Nikkei poll showed, potentially slowing the premier’s push to revise the nation’s pacifist constitution.

The most likely scenario is the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito bloc picking up 297 seats, shy of the 310 need for the so-called super-majority. The opposition populists Party of Hope and the Japan Innovation Party will likely get 65, while left-leaning parties led by the new Constitutional Democratic Party are set to win 73.

MinimumMost likelyMaximum
Ruling coalition242297344
Hope/Innovation4265103
Left-leaning bloc617394
Independents143034

"The biggest impact will be on constitutional revision if they fall short, but that was never going to be easy as the public is unlikely to vote for it," said Tobias Harris, a Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence in Washington. "There may be some embarrassment for Abe" if they lose the two-thirds majority, but the practical impact of that could be limited, he said.

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