High Yield Investors Sweat for Return in Europe 'Sellers Market'By
Buyers seek strategies amid low coupon, issuer-friendly terms
New HY bond sales set to reach record in 2017: Bloomberg data
European high-yield bond investors are having to work harder in a busy primary market to preserve returns, as thin coupons and issuer-friendly structures become the new normal.
With borrowers enjoying one of the best markets in recent years to issue new debt, portfolio managers are having to adopt different strategies including increased exposure to higher-rated issuers, looking at U.S. companies selling bonds in Europe or simply reducing their participation in new transactions.
“We are pleased that supply has picked up, but we have been disappointed by the quality and pricing of some of the new deals,” said Tom Ross, a high-yield portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Group Plc in London, who recently reduced average participation in new issues being marketed in Europe to less than 25 percent from 50 to 70 percent traditionally. “Demand is currently still strong, however we are concerned it might drop given the performance of recent deals.”
European high-yield issuance this year is poised to set new records with volumes already totaling 64 billion euros-equivalent ($75.4 billion), close to the 66 billion euros-equivalent record for the whole of 2015, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The increase in supply comes as borrowers take advantage of a regime of low rates and low volatility amid strong demand from yield-hungry investors.
While the rush ofdeals is partly sating investors’ appetite for the asset class, transactions so far in 2017 are generally offering lower coupons and lighter covenants than in previous years. The average coupon on high-yield issues year-to-date has fallen to 4.4 percent, compared to 5.3 percent in 2016, Bloomberg data show.
“Valuations are tight, so we need to make sure we’re getting paid for the risks in the market,” said Vivek Bommi, a senior portfolio manager for global and European high-yield at Neuberger Berman, which has $123 billion of fixed-income assets under management. “We’re being more selective in general. We may like a triple C name but if it’s coming at very tight levels, without much upside, we won’t hold.”
High valuations have also pushed fund managers to increase exposure to higher-rated credits, with Janus Henderson’s Ross saying the firm is looking to invest more in double B and rising star names, as well as less cyclical credits. Neuberger Berman’s Bommi said the fund is overweight double B versus single B and triple C given the narrow spread between these rating categories.
Overall covenant quality has been declining in European high-yield, with more than 37 percent of sub-investment grade euro-denominated bonds classified as weak or weakest in the first half of this year, up from around 12 percent in 2012, according to Lisa Gundy, a senior covenant officer at Moody’s.
“There has been degradation in covenant quality and disappointing term structures in the primary market,” says Mitch Reznick, the London-based co-head of credit at Hermes Investment Management, which oversees about $32 billion in assets. “We’re also seeing a lot of deals with shorter non-call periods, in which investors won’t benefit from credit improvement over time,” given that any potential upside is capped earlier, he said.
Lower-quality credits may also be challenged by a potential slowdown in economic growth next year if interest rate increases, according to Reznick. The asset manager said it is looking across different jurisdictions for investment opportunities, including reverse-yankees or European issuers in the U.S.
A 735 million-euro bond sale from Stada Arzneimittel AG’s in September was an example of this new dynamic, with the deal being upsized on the back of a strong order book despite investors’ attempt to push back on a covenant clause.
The high-profile of the company and sheer size of the deal -- one of the largest buyout-related leveraged issues in Europe so far this year -- may have encouraged investors who are under pressure to deploy cash to tolerate softer terms and take part in the sale, according to sources familiar with the transaction. In other recent deals such as Avantor Inc. and Diversey Inc., investors lobbied successfully to remove issuer-friendly provisions.
Yet for some investors, returns in the European high-yield market are still attractive given razor-thin government bond yields, the positive economic backdrop in the region and low default rates. Yields on the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European High Yield Index have tightened to 3.29 percent from 4.61 percent almost a year ago.
“With trailing default rates in the one to two percent range, there is a positive, whilst skinny, risk premium offered by the high yield market,” said David Allen, chief investment officer at the European credit fund AlbaCore Capital LLP, which had 500 million euros in assets under management at its first close in November 2016. “With sovereign debt paying nothing in Germany, for example, it makes sense for investors there to get excited about making four to six percent on something they think is safe.”