Mexico Inflation Rate Falls From 16-Year High in Early September

  • Inflation had accelerated for 14 months through August
  • Banxico left key rate unchanged last month after seven hikes

Mexico’s inflation slowed early in September, after reaching its fastest pace in 16 years last month, as price pressures on some fruits and vegetables abated.

Key Points

  • Consumer prices climbed 6.53 percent from a year earlier, compared with 6.74 percent in the second half of August, the nation’s statistics institute said Friday
  • The median forecast from 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 6.59 percent rise
  • Prices increased 0.34 percent from two weeks earlier

Big Picture

Mexico’s central bank left its key interest rate unchanged last month at 7 percent, the highest level since 2009, after seven consecutive hikes, saying inflation will slow to its 3 percent target by the end of next year. The peso has rebounded from a record low in January, easing inflation pressures, on expectations the nation’s trade deal with the U.S. can be updated in a constructive way despite President Donald Trump’s threats to end it.

Analysts expect inflation to slow to 6.3 percent by year-end and 3.8 percent by the end of 2018, according to the median forecast in a survey published this week by Citibanamex. They also forecast the central bank to leave the key rate on hold until August of next year, when they will finally reduce it.

Details

* Red tomato prices fell 12 percent from two weeks earlier, with green tomato and avocado prices also decreasing
* Core prices rose 4.9 percent from a year earlier and 0.28 percent from the previous two weeks, compared with a 0.3 percent median analyst estimate
* Peso rose 0.6 percent to 17.7807 per dollar in Friday morning trading

— With assistance by Rafael Gayol

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