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Oil's Surge Masks Risk of Brent Slumping to $40 After Summer

  • Global oil marker may end 2017 in $45-$47/bbl range, JBC says
  • ‘Tricky’ oil market seen in Q1 as supplies rise, demand wanes
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Brent crude could potentially drop to $40 a barrel or below in the first quarter of 2018 without deeper output curbs by OPEC, according to an oil analyst at industry consultant JBC Energy GmbH.

The benchmark for more than half the world’s oil may end 2017 between $45 and $47 a barrel, after which the market may turn “very tricky,” said Richard Gorry, managing director at JBC Asia. While prices are being supported by recent U.S. inventory draws amid the summer driving season when fuel demand typically peaks, that trend will reverse from early-September as consumption weakens, he said.