Photographer: Prashanth Vishwanathan/Bloomberg

Red Flags Emerge for India's Bond Market as Farmer Bailouts Rise

  • Ten-year sovereign yield may reach 7% by end-2017: SocGen
  • Borrowings by state governments are set to rise this quarter

Investors in India’s bond market are already raising red flags on the potential impact from populist farmer bailouts being engineered by different state governments.

Yields on the so-called state development loans, or SDLs, climbed at the most recent auction, widening their spread over sovereign rates. The increase comes amid concern that waiving billions of dollars in farm loans will worsen already strained states’ finances. Debt sales by regional administrations are set to rise this quarter, and could pose a challenge for the federal government’s borrowing program.

“Loan waivers will have a negative impact on state finances” said C. Venkat Nageswar, the Mumbai-based head of treasury and deputy managing director at State Bank of India, the largest lender. “At least part of this additional burden will be financed through market borrowings, which could push up SDL spreads.”

Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state, set off a domino effect by saying in April that it will waive off loans worth 363.6 billion rupees ($5.6 billion). Maharashtra, Karnataka and Punjab have announced similar bailouts, while farmers in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Tamil Nadu are clamoring for the debt relief, which if granted could cost hundreds of billions of rupees more.

The cutoffs at a June 27 auction of 10-year debt by various state governments saw their yield spread over similar-maturity sovereign bonds widen to a range of 74-83 basis points, from 63-73 basis points at the previous sale on June 13. The gaps were around 50 basis points in October.

That’s “the new normal,” said Vivek Rajpal, a Singapore-based rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. “I wouldn’t be too keen on assuming that spreads will narrow over time.”

Read: Great Farmer Bailout Imperils India Sovereign-Rating Upgrade

With populations as large as 200 million people, Indian states are massive, and also wield enormous budgets. The bailouts come at a time when their finances are already strained as they roll out pay hikes for several government employees and acquire debt piled up at state-run power distribution companies under a 2015 federal plan to revive the utilities.

States plan to borrow a combined 980 billion rupees to 1.05 trillion rupees this quarter, showed an indicative borrowing calendar released by the central bank this week. That compares with announced debt sales of up to 750 billion rupees for the same period last year and as much as 777 billion rupees for the three months ended June 30.

Read: States on Borrowing Binge Bad News for Modi and Indian Bonds

Country-wide waivers may reach 18 percent to 20 percent of India’s estimated outstanding farm loans of 17 trillion rupees, according to Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. However, the details of how each state will fund its deficit are yet to be laid out, with some likely to cut down on expenditure to fund a part of their bailout. Some others may choose to finance the deficit over multiple years.

“Higher state-bond premiums will likely lead to higher federal government yields with a lag,” said Amit Agrawal, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in Bengaluru. He predicts the 10-year sovereign yield, which was at 6.54 percent in Mumbai on Thursday, to rise to 7 percent by end-2017.

— With assistance by Iain Marlow, and Kartik Goyal

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