London Swinging to May Less Than Rest of Britain, Poll Suggests

  • Labour retains 5-point lead over Conservatives, YouGov finds
  • Five seats set to change hands in June 8 election: Standard

Theresa May’s Conservative Party is set for less sweeping gains in London than in the rest of Britain in the June 8 election, a poll of voters in the capital suggested.

The YouGov Plc poll for the Evening Standard newspaper found support for Labour on 41 percent, down 2 percentage points from the 2015 election, with the Tories on 36 percent, up 2 points. That 4-point swing to the Tories is less than the 6 points or so being recorded in nationwide polls, reflecting the greater vote in the capital to stay in the European Union.

Backing for the pro-EU Liberal Democrats rose 6 points to 14 percent, more strongly than outside London, while the U.K. Independence Party dropped 2 points to 6 percent. The poll was the first focusing on London since May called the general election. Unlike in other parts of Britain, there were no local elections in the capital last week to test party support.

The shift to the Tories indicates May’s party will gain four swing seats from Labour, the Standard said: Ealing Central, Ilford North, Brentford and Enfield North. The prime minister has campaigned in both Brentford and Enfield. Other Labour seats that are vulnerable include Harrow West and Westminster North, which have also been targeted by May.

The poll also suggests the former Liberal Democrat business secretary, Vince Cable, is poised to regain his former Twickenham district from the Tories, according to the Standard. The Liberal Democrats are targeting several other strongly pro-“Remain” seats in the capital.

YouGov questioned 1,040 adults in London from April 27 to May 2 for its poll, for which no margin of error was given. The capital has 73 of the 650 House of Commons electoral districts.

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