Yen Extends Declines as Haven Trades Unwind, Euro Gains

  • Approach of ECB meeting fuels speculation on language shift
  • Canadian dollar drops to 14-month low after tariffs imposed

NAB's Attrill Sees Euro Trending Higher Next Year

The yen declined to a two-week low versus the dollar as concern about U.S. trade moves against Canada further muddied a currency market that is still in the process of unraveling hedges put in place ahead of the French election.

Flows were mixed as traders balanced multiple drivers. The euro rose to a fresh high for the day after a report that the European Central Bank may use more positive language to describe the region’s economy. The yen fell against all of its G-10 peers as haven trades were unwound. The Canadian dollar fell to a 14-month low versus the greenback after President Trump imposed tariffs on the nation’s lumber and criticized its dairy policies. The Bloomberg dollar spot index relinquished most of the gains made earlier in the day to trade 0.1 percent higher.

  • The euro traded to to its highest in almost six months vs the dollar at 1.0950 as Reuters reported that the ECB could consider changing its language in June now that the threat of a French election runoff between two euro-skeptics has passed; the ECB has little appetite to change its language at this week’s meeting, according to the report
    • EUR faces technical resistance from the Nov. 10 high 1.0954 as it trades above its 200-DMA for a second day
  • The near-term horizon is cluttered with the FOMC meeting next week and the second round of the French presidential vote, as well as June legislative elections, all bolstering the case for a steady stance, traders say
  • Nonetheless, the euro, steadily underpinned by model-driven demand, climbed to a one-month high vs the yen at 121.65. Traders expect that a victory in the May 7 second round vote by centrist Emmanuel Macron, who holds a strong lead over Marine Le Pen in recent polls, may further underpin the euro, allowing the currency to recoup recent losses
  • The Canadian dollar fell vs 8 of its G-10 peers after the Trump administration announced tariffs on soft lumber; USD/CAD rose to its highest since February 2016 at 1.3626, while USD/MXN climbed to its highest in a month
  • USD/JPY is up more than 1% and trading near fresh high 111.19, absorbing offers and tripping stop-loss buy orders at 110.90 after supply at 110.60/65, said traders in London and New York familiar with the transactions who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly. USD may face technical resistance at the April 10 high 111.58
  • A rise in Treasury yields pushed the 10Y yield past 2.33%, weighing on riskier currencies such as the Mexican peso and Brazilian real
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