Dollar Climbs as Traders Await Trump-Xi Meeting, Jobs Report

  • Euro slips after dovish remarks from ECB’s Draghi, Constancio
  • Median forecast for non-farm payrolls rises to 180,000

The dollar rose for the third day in four and was higher versus most of its G-10 peers as traders hunkered down ahead of Thursday’s meeting between President Donald Trump and China’s president Xi Jinping and the U.S. March employment report Friday morning.

Trading flows and price swings were modest as some participants stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, which has the potential to highlight policy differences on trade, currency and North Korea. The dollar has built modest gains for the day, reflecting upside risk in the jobs report after the ADP employment report showed stronger-than-expected hiring in the private sector in March.

The median forecast for non-farm payrolls has risen to 180,000 from 175,000 in the Bloomberg survey of economists since the ADP report was released Wednesday.

  • EUR/USD slipped to 1.0638, its lowest level of the U.S. session, after European Central Bank’s Vitor Constancio said there’s broad consensus on the Governing Council, called March drop in core inflation “somewhat disappointing.”
  • Earlier Wednesday, during European trading, ECB President Mario Draghi sought to quash the idea that the central bank will begin tightening policy sooner than planned.
  • EUR is likely to find bids ahead of 1.0600 where a large option expiry rolls off Friday; earlier, the shared currency had bids filled at 1.0635 as its streak of lower daily lows extended to an eighth day. EUR may find technical support at the 100-DMA, 1.0624.
  • USD/JPY rose to a fresh high above 111.00 as JPY erased overnight gains fueled by a spell of risk-aversion after the minutes of the March FOMC meeting showed some members concerned about stock valuations. 
  • USD/JPY is likely to find large bids below 110.00, a trader in Asia said; it may find offers ahead of 111.50, where another large option strike rolls off Friday.
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