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Inflation Exposure Shapes Fed Officials Into Hawks and Doves

Federal Reserve officials are more likely to be hawkish if they've experienced high inflation
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Deep Dive Into the Future Path of Fed Policy


Federal Reserve officials are products of their eras. 

A policy maker's hawkish or dovish tilt hinges at least partly on the inflation environment they've experienced, according to new research. That's the leading item in our research wrap this week, and it's followed by a Goldman Sachs analysis of the U.S. economy's neutral interest rate, which is another piece worth reading about ahead of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee rate decision. This week's roundup also links to studies on single mothers and the marriage premium and on how immigration status affects wages. Check this column each Tuesday for the latest in policy-relevant or interesting economic research. 

Trying to figure out Fed officials' thought process? It might be worth taking a look at their birthdays. The inflation environment Fed officials have experienced influence their policy stance and dissents, based on new research by University of California Berkeley's Ulrike Malmendier and University of Michigan's  Zhen Yan and Stefan Nagel. "FOMC members use a more hawkish tone in their speeches when their lifetime experiences imply a higher experience-based inflation forecast," they find, looking at officials starting from 1951.