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Goldman Says Commodities Need Proof of Demand to Rally More

  • Market positioning ‘extremely long’ across commodity complex
  • Investors need hard evidence of demand, inventory drawdowns
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Are Commodities Approaching Last Inning of Cycle?

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Commodity markets will probably stay in a “holding pattern” until there are hard data showing real demand and shrinking stockpiles to support the recent price rally, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which expects such evidence to emerge in the second quarter.

“Market positioning is now extremely long across the commodity complex, as markets have priced in robust expectations on forward demand and inventory draws,” analysts led by Jeff Currie wrote in a report received Wednesday. Investors need to see proof of this outlook, or “in other words, ‘show me the activity’; real demand, real stock draws and empty warehouses,” they wrote.