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Goldman Warns of China Economy Risks During Year of the Rooster

  • Relative calm seen coming at cost of credit surge, imbalances
  • Base case remains for modest slowdown even as risks remain

China’s economy may have slipped down the global worry list, but significant risks remain, including an abrupt end to a massive credit boom or an overly aggressive policy response if inflation should speed up, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

While a hard landing isn’t the New York-based bank’s base case for 2017 -- it expects only a modest slowdown -- economists warn that a push to rein in cheap loans will weigh on key sectors such as housing. Officials are trying to keep a lid on frothy house prices without harming the wider economy, where growth remains heavily reliant on government spending.