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Even a Le Pen Win Won’t Be Enough to Break Up Euro, Banks Say

  • UniCredit says France leaving the euro is a ‘very low’ risk
  • Commerzbank says a Le Pen victory can trigger capital flight
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BAML's Moec Sees No Meaningful Probability for Le Pen

Whatever the outcome of France’s presidential elections, it probably won’t raise the odds of an exit from the euro, most analysts say.

The chances of anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen winning the second round on May 7 are slim and even if she does, the National Front party leader is unlikely to get a majority in the legislative vote in June, according to banks including Barclays Plc and UniCredit SpA. Without strong support in Parliament, her ability to push for a referendum on the country’s membership in the currency union will be limited, according to most currency strategists and economists.