Rainy Day Funds Show States Are More Vulnerable to Next Downturn

  • Median reserves of expenses among states slipping in 2017
  • Lack of budgetary cushion in past recession heightened woes

More states are failing to sock away cash for the next rainy day.

The number without budget reserves has doubled to four from last year, according to data from the National Association of State Budget Officers. And discipline in building up cushions has slipped, with the median balance 4.9 percent of expenditures in fiscal 2017, down from 5.1 percent, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said in a note to clients.

The number of states with rainy day funds of less than 1 percent of expenses rose to five from three in fiscal 2017, while those with balances of up to 5 percent declined to 17 from 19, the budget officers’ report showed.

Skimpier reserves risk exacerbating the effect of a national slowdown, as well as that from federal policies. President Donald Trump has pledged to repeal the Affordable Care Act, which would likely hit state budgets, and any overhaul that reduces taxes may curb demand for tax-free municipal bonds, which could make it more costly for localities to borrow.

Investors have punished states with low reserves. Of the four with none -- Illinois, New Jersey, Nevada and North Dakota-- Illinois and New Jersey must pay the highest premiums over benchmark debt among 20 states surveyed by Bloomberg. The two, which grapple with chronic budget deficits and elevated pension costs, are also the lowest-ranked U.S. states.

Other states have learned their lessons. California is enjoying its highest credit rating since the turn of the century, thanks partly to bolstering its rainy-day funds.

Lawmakers in California and in capitols across the country weren’t prepared for the last recession. In 2009, when it ended, budget gaps totaled $117 billion, about twice the level of reserves, according to Pew Charitable Trusts.

Analysts don’t expect a recession soon. The economy will probably expand through at least the first quarter of 2018, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Even so, some state officials are girding for the eventual decline. Half of states expect to pad their reserves in fiscal 2017, according to the budget officers’ group. That includes California, where Governor Jerry Brown wants to further lift the savings account to $7.9 billion in fiscal 2018 from $6.7 billion this year.

"Saving now would allow the state to spend from its rainy day fund later to soften the magnitude and length of any necessary cuts," California’s budget said.

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