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How the Davos Pundits Got It Wrong: President Clinton, Anyone?

  • Predictions from 2016 show perils of assessing political risk
  • “I’m really looking forward to it: Trump’s humiliation”

This just in: Shortly after Hillary Clinton is sworn in as U.S. president on Friday, she’ll telephone British Prime Minister David Cameron to discuss closer ties with Europe. Other global leaders, meanwhile, will wrap up the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski resort of Davos.

Well, the last part is true. The rest isn’t fake news. Instead, it flows from predictions made at the conference in 2016, highlighting the perils of forecasting political risk, especially in an era of growing populism. While the event offers countless opportunities for crystal-ball gazing, don’t expect much confidence in the Davos crowd’s predictions.