BlackRock Says Bond Yields to Rise as Global Growth Turns Corner

  • Optimism on global economy negative for bonds, Boa says
  • ‘Reflation story’ requires investors rethink portfolios: Boa

A Deep Dive Into Bond Markets and the Fed

BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager, expects global bond yields to rise in 2017 as improving economic growth worldwide spurs reflation.

Increases in consumer prices have picked up pace globally, and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to boost infrastructure spending are fueling speculation more advances are in store. China’s factory-gate inflation jumped to the highest since late 2011 at 3.3 percent in November. The global economy will likely expand 3.2 percent in 2017, up from 2.9 percent this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

Investors have become “far more constructive on the global macro economy,” which is good for equities but negative for bond prices, according to Belinda Boa, head of active investments for Asia-Pacific for BlackRock at a briefing in Hong Kong. “We believe that the global economy is at a very big inflection point right now,” she said.

Boa said that the “reflation story” is one of the most important themes for 2017 and will require investors to “re-think” portfolio positioning. The firm prefers stocks over fixed income and is cautious on government bonds. Within fixed income, BlackRock sees Asia as a bright spot as credit profiles are improving and default rates remain low.

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