Gold’s Top Forecaster Sees Two Hikes, Weaker Prices in 2017

  • OCBC’s Gan sees bullion dropping to $1,100 by fourth quarter
  • Prices will also retreat on ‘rosier’ global economic growth

What’s Behind Gold’s Slump?

Gold will be on the retreat in 2017 on rosier global economic growth and tighter policy from the Federal Reserve, which will hikes rates twice, according to the most accurate bullion forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the third quarter.

Bulllion will be at $1,175 an ounce in the first quarter, $1,150 between April and June, $1,125 in the third period and $1,100 by the fourth, according to a presentation from Barnabas Gan, an economist at Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., on Friday Spot gold was at $1,170.45 at 5:13 p.m. local time.

Gold has been battered in the past five weeks, paring an annual gain, on expectations for faster growth when President-elect Donald Trump takes office, and as the U.S. central bank tightens monetary policy. Before next year’s predicted pair of hikes, U.S. policy makers will most likely raise rates next week, according to Gan. Bullion’s allure has also been undermined by a rally in U.S. equity benchmarks to records.

“With the U.S. Fed most likely to raise interest rates next week by 25 basis points, the firmer dollar is a very, very strong factor to limit any rally,” Gan said. Aside from the Fed’s decision, the rhetoric markets will be looking for is on the trajectory for rates into 2017, according to Gan.

ABN Amro NV has the same forecast as OCBC, citing rising real Treasury yields as being a “major negative” for bullion. Still, Commerzbank AG is more bullish, seeing Trump’s presidency and the U.K.’s negotiations to leave the European Union as risks that may boost prices, as well as inflation. 

“Our base case scenario for 2017 is for next year to be rosy, for global growth to pick up, and for the safe haven demand for gold to actually slow down,” said Gan. “But there are very clear risks to this outlook. There are still geopolitical tensions and there are still a lot of issues at play."

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