More Political Turmoil Is Coming, According to Investors After Trump's Win
The unexpected election of an president who's never held political office is merely a layover on the way to a fresh peak in political-risk premiums, according to 57 percent of investors who responded to a survey conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch in the aftermath of the vote.
That may help explain why a similar portion of respondents said they were making no change to their cash holdings. Disdain for Treasuries was another strong theme of the survey — conducted on November 9 — and one which has been borne out in subsequent days by the sell-off that brings the total of value wiped off bonds worldwide this week to $1 trillion. A mere 2 percent of the 114 respondents recommended buying in.
The most popular post-election trade in the survey was buying the S&P 500, a preference 30 percent of investors subscribed to. 15 percent said they were selling risky assets, while 12 percent said buy gold. Only 4 percent of respondents said the election result won't affect their plans.
The poll also shows that investors are "discounting fiscal stimulus not protectionism," as the note's authors wrote, after 46 percent of the respondents said they expect Trump is most likely to proceed with corporate-tax repatriation and infrastructure spending plans during his first 100 days. A mere 5 percent expect new trade policies during that period.