Gold’s Haven Appeal Wanes as Polls Show Narrow Lead for Clinton

Updated on
  • Bullion posts first back-to-back gain in a month as U.S. votes
  • Gold may fall to $1,250 within a week if Clinton wins: survey

Rickards: Markets and Gold Fully Priced for Clinton

Gold slipped as opinion polls put Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump before U.S. voters cast their ballots in the presidential election.

Bullion has swung in recent weeks as investors tracked the U.S. campaign. A win for Trump is largely seen as bullish for gold because his promises to renegotiate trade deals and curb immigration may introduce geopolitical instability, boosting demand for haven assets. Gold gained in recent weeks as polls tightened and investors bet the Federal Reserve would move slowly on raising interest rates.

“Gold is going to make a much larger move as the night progresses with the results coming in, especially after polling stations close,” Phil Streible, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “And then 24 hours from now everyone is going to ask: ‘Hey, is the Fed going to raise rates in December?’ and then we’ll proceed forward with life.”

Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.4 percent to settle at $1,274.50 an ounce at 1:50 p.m. on the Comex in New York. It was the first back-to-back decline in almost a month.

Gold fell on Monday after the Federal Bureau of Investigation absolved Clinton of committing a crime in her handling of e-mails, sending the dollar higher. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. stuck with its three- and six-month estimate for $1,280 an ounce, and forecast prices dropping to $1,250 in 12 months. 

“Our economists believe that there is a significant polling deficit for Mr. Trump to overcome in a large number of states, particularly in contrast to Secretary Clinton,” Goldman analysts including Max Layton said in a report received on Tuesday. The Democrat “simply needs to win one of the very competitive states she currently leads -- Colorado, Nevada, or North Carolina -- and maintain her sizable lead in the others to win.”

In other metals:

  • Silver futures for December delivery rose 1.1 percent to $18.356 an ounce.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum and palladium climbed.