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Armstrong: Expect a Market Overreaction to Election

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It's jobs day, two trading days are left before polls open in the U.S. election, and oil is under $45. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

Jobs day

Today the Federal Reserve may get some of the further evidence it says it needs before hiking rates when payrolls numbers for October are released at 8:30 a.m. ET. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, employers added 173,000 jobs in October, up from 156,000 the previous month. The survey also projects a 0.3 percent rise in wages in the month. 

Election countdown

With only two trading days left before polls open in the U.S. presidential election, both candidates have evidence they can point to when saying they're going to win. For traders, flashbacks from the U.K.'s vote on the EU referendum in June have them preparing for a rough night. In Europe and Asia, investors are still backing Clinton to win, with one firm saying 80 percent of its customers' dollars are backing a victory by the Democratic candidate.

Oil under $45 

A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for December delivery was trading at $44.62 at 6:09 a.m. ET as the commodity headed for its biggest weekly loss in almost 10 months. While Citigroup Inc. says that OPEC and Russia will probably reach a deal to reduce crude production, market indicators at the moment point to investor skepticism

Markets drop

Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9 percent, while Japan's Topix index dropped 1.6 percent, completing its worst week since July. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 1.0 percent lower at 6:16 a.m. ET with banks leading the losses. S&P 500 futures were little changed after the index closed lower for the eighth day in a row on Thursday. 

New low for the lira

The lira slid to a new low against the dollar, while Turkish bonds and stocks sold off this morning after police detained leading opposition Kurdish members of parliament and an explosion rocked the largest city in the nation's southeast. While Turkey suffers from its own problems, assets across emerging markets are also selling off ahead of Tuesday's U.S. election, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index of shares extending this week's decline to 2.5 percent this morning. 

What we've been reading 

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

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