Early Vote Analysis Favors Clinton in Key Battlegrounds

Which Candidate Is Doing Well in Early Voting?

As of Nov. 2, with six days left to go until U.S. Election Day, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had likely won 52.6 percent of early votes cast nationwide and was leading in several important battleground states, according to an analysis by polling and strategy firm Clarity Campaign Labs. The company models the likelihood that an early voter will pick either Clinton or Donald Trump using an algorithm that weighs hundreds of variables -- from individual voting histories to neighborhood-level Census records -- in order to determine how much they resemble each candidate’s typical supporter. Translated into electoral votes, this early voting model puts Clinton at 244 to 149 for Trump, not counting votes from any of the 13 states requiring an excuse to vote early or absentee.

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