Euro Climbs From 7-Month Low as Economic Data Reduce Easing Odds

  • Currency getting support from signs of growth in region
  • Global foreign-exchange volatility near lowest this year

The euro rose from a seven-month low on signs the European economy may be improving enough to reduce pressure on the European Central Bank to further ease monetary policy.

The shared currency advanced against most of its 16 major peers, heading for the first weekly gain against the greenback in four weeks. Volatility in global currencies hovered near the lowest this year, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. gauge.

The euro weakened after the ECB President Mario Draghi said at a meeting last week that policy makers didn’t talk about extending or tapering the institution’s 1.7 trillion-euro ($1.9 trillion) quantitative-easing program. Several forward-looking surveys this week on services and manufacturing came in above market forecasts, boosting the outlook for the currency.

“The euro is undervalued over the long term,” said Bipan Rai, a senior foreign-exchange and macro strategist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Toronto. “Given what we’ve seen from price action, movements are largely reflective of the German economy more so than others at this point.”

The shared currency rose 0.2 percent to $1.0908 as of 5 p.m. in New York. It fell to $1.0851 Tuesday, the lowest since March. It will appreciate to $1.10 by the end of the year, according to forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

The JPMorgan global currency volatility index was at 9.38 percent, close to the lowest level since December.

Business confidence in the European Union’s largest economy rose to the highest level in more than two years, the Munich-based Ifo institute said on Tuesday, while manufacturing accelerated at the fastest pace in almost three years in October, IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index on Monday showed.

The ECB last week expressed confidence that a “moderate but steady” pace of growth can be maintained in the 19-nation region despite political uncertainty and slowing global trade.

“The recent data has been positive,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “That helps to bring some sense of stability into the euro.”

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