China Crude Output Stabilizes After Falling to Six-Year Low

  • September oil output rose 0.3% from August to 3.9 million b/d
  • Country’s production likely won’t rebound this year: ICIS

China’s crude output stabilized after falling to the lowest level in six years as global prices rebounded amid OPEC’s renewed commitment to manage supply.

Production in the world’s largest energy consumer added 0.3 percent last month to about 3.9 million barrels a day, rebounding from the lowest since December 2009, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Wednesday. Output dropped 9.8 percent in September from a year ago to 15.98 million metric tons, the bureau said, while falling 6.1 percent during the first nine months of the year.

“Although we wont see a major rebound in Chinese production for the remainder of the year, output will stabilize at around 16.25 million to 16.5 million tons a month in the last quarter of the year,” said Amy Sun, an analyst with Shanghai-based commodities researcher ICIS-China.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, has rebounded about 13 percent since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed Sept. 28 to cut production for the first time in eight years. Production by the world’s biggest consumer after the U.S. will stabilize with prices around $50 a barrel and may not rebound until they are above $60, according to Neil Beveridge, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.

Brent added 49 cents, or 1 percent, to $52.17 a barrel, at 3:34 p.m. Beijing time.

Oil refining was up 2.4 percent from a year ago to 43.8 million tons, or 10.7 million barrels a day, Wednesday’s data showed. Oil processing is forecast to rise from October as refinery maintenance ends and demand for diesel grows, according to Sun.

— With assistance by Sarah Chen, and Jing Yang

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