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Building Towards a Possible Fed Rate Hike in December

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The pound jumps, Russian pledges help boost oil, and traders are waiting for last month's Fed minutes. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today. 

Fed minutes

At 2:00 p.m. New York time, traders will find out what Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer meant on Sunday when he described September's decision to postpone an interest rate hike as a "close call." The minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting could shift fed fund futures contracts, which at 6:12 a.m. ET showed investors assigning about a two-thirds probability of a December rate increase and a less than 20 percent chance of one next month. There were three dissenters among the 10 voting members at the September meeting that ended with the central bank opting to keep rates steady. Meanwhile, data show the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ticked up to 1.7 percent in the year through August, to reach its highest level in almost two years.

A Brexit hearing

At 12:30 p.m. in London, U.K. Parliament will discuss a motion from the opposition Labour Party calling for a "full and transparent debate on the government's plan for leaving the EU" that would allow MPs to "properly scrutinize that plan" before Prime Minister Theresa May begins formal talks. The likelihood that their oversight will take the form of a vote helped the pound climb toward its biggest gain in almost two months. It was trading 1.1 percent higher at $1.2250 at 5:56 a.m. ET, even if it's still this year's worst-performing major currency.

Thai bhat falls

Thailand’s baht has fallen every day this week after the royal palace said last weekend that King Bhumibol Adulyadej’s health was unstable, while equities on the SET Index extended the week's declines to 6.5 percent by the close. Revered by many for what they say has been his unifying presence during a seven-decade reign, the 88 year-old ruler's health is closely watched by markets. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha returned to Bangkok today, but is not expected to make a statement.

Deutsche Bank boosts bond sale

There's some brighter news for Deutsche Bank AG, even if its senior bankers are getting poached. Less than a week after raising $3 billion in a private debt sale, the lender is said to have returned for another $1.5 billion. It sold the debt at a premium of 290 basis points, or slightly lower than the 300 bps seen at the Oct. 7 sale, but still twice that demanded in a public issue of similar notes back in August 2015. Elsewhere in the world of embattled European financials, Lloyds Banking Group Plc is said to be axing 1,340 jobs.

Putin production pledge 

Oil climbed as OPEC received further commitments from Russia that the world’s largest energy exporter is willing to participate in efforts to curb production. The World Energy Congress entered its last day in Istanbul, where by 6 a.m. ET the Turkish lira traded within a hair's breadth of a record, weakening alongside other emerging markets

What we've been reading 

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

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