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Mexican Peso Seen Weakening Up to 20 Percent If Trump Wins

  • Currency could fall to 23 per dollar, according to a survey
  • Peso would trade between 18 and 21 if Clinton wins election
The portrait of Benito Juarez on a twenty Mexican Peso bill is seen in an arranged photograph in Mexico City, Mexico, on Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016. Mexico’s peso, the worst performing major currency in 2016, is poised for a rebound by the end of this year, according to its most-accurate forecaster, Sireen Harajli, a strategist for Mizuho Bank Ltd. who was the best analyst for the peso in the fourth quarter, according to a Bloomberg ranking.
Photographer: Susana González/Bloomberg

Mexico’s peso may weaken to a range of 21 to 23 against the U.S. dollar if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump wins the election, according to the majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey conducted Sept. 16-28. The currency will likely trade between 18 and 21 if Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, wins. Below is a chart of the survey results.

The peso strengthened the most against the dollar among its major-currency counterparts after the second U.S. presidential debate, in which both candidates exchanged barbs. It rose 2.4 percent to a one-month high of 18.8316 per dollar as of 10:44 a.m. in New York. The Mexican currency has been a barometer of investor anxiety about the Nov. 8 election, falling when Trump advances in the polls and gaining when he slumps.