Photographer: Susana González/Bloomberg

Mexican Peso Seen Weakening Up to 20 Percent If Trump Wins

  • Currency could fall to 23 per dollar, according to a survey
  • Peso would trade between 18 and 21 if Clinton wins election

Mexico’s peso may weaken to a range of 21 to 23 against the U.S. dollar if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump wins the election, according to the majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey conducted Sept. 16-28. The currency will likely trade between 18 and 21 if Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, wins. Below is a chart of the survey results.

The peso strengthened the most against the dollar among its major-currency counterparts after the second U.S. presidential debate, in which both candidates exchanged barbs. It rose 2.4 percent to a one-month high of 18.8316 per dollar as of 10:44 a.m. in New York. The Mexican currency has been a barometer of investor anxiety about the Nov. 8 election, falling when Trump advances in the polls and gaining when he slumps.

Full results:

Firm/EconomistClinton WinsTrump Wins
Moody’s: A. CoutinoBetween 18-21Between 21-23
Santander: R. Camarena ZavalaBetween 18-21Between 21-23
Itau: A. MullerBelow 18Between 21-23
Casa Bolsa Ve Por Mas: RamirezBelow 18Between 21-23
Banorte-IXE: A. PadillaBetween 18-21Between 21-23
Barclays: M. OviedoBetween 18-21Between 21-23
Scotiabank: M. CorreaBetween 18-21Above 23

Economists were also asked about whether the government’s proposed budget would be sufficient to stave off a ratings downgrade by either Moody’s Investors Service or S&P Global Ratings:

Firm/EconomistAnswer
Santander: R. Camarena ZavalaNO
Casa Bolsa Ve Por Mas: RamirezNO
Scotiabank: M. CorreaNO
Itau: A. MullerYES
Banorte-IXE: A. PadillaYES
Barclays: M. OviedoYES
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