Canada Household Confidence Holds at 5-Month Low on Economy View

  • Pocketbook measure drops to lowest since June on finances
  • Readings on job security, real estate show slight improvement

Canadian household confidence held at the lowest since April as readings on the economy’s future and personal finances declined, weekly telephone polling showed. 

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index was little changed at 56.5 in the week ended Sept. 30, matching the lowest reading since April. Among respondents, 19.4 percent predicted the economy would improve over the next six months, the smallest share since February. Improvements in measures of job security and the real estate market balanced off the negative economic view.

Every week, Nanos Research asks Canadians for their opinions on personal finances, job security, the outlook for the economy and where real estate prices are headed. This is what the survey data, which is compiled for Bloomberg News, captured last week:

  • The Pocketbook sub-index tracking personal finances and job security fell to 58.3, the lowest since the end of June, the month before the federal government started paying out enhanced child care benefits.

  • The Expectations sub-index, which looks at views of the economy and real estate, rose to 54.7, from 54.3 earlier. The reading for the Prairie region including the oil hub of Alberta dropped to 44.4 from an Aug. 5 peak of 52.5.

  • The labor market saw improvement. The share of people who called their jobs “secure” increased to 47.6, from 46.5 previously. Those who said their jobs were “not at all secure” declined to 6.5 percent, from 7.6 percent. Statistics Canada reports labor data for September on Friday. The August report showed the biggest drop in hours worked since the last recession. 

  • Concern about declining home prices eased last week, with 14.5 percent of respondents predicting the value of local real estate would fall, down from 24.6 percent two weeks ago, and below the 12-month average of 16.8 percent.

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index is based on a four-week rolling average of telephone polling with 1,000 respondents. It’s considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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