Payrolls, Debate, Tory Conference: Week Ahead Oct. 1-8

  • Brexit looms as prime topic as U.K. Conservative Party meets
  • IMF and World Bank hold annual meeting; Google unveils devices

Payroll growth in the U.S. probably picked up in September as employers added about 175,000 workers, signaling steady labor-market improvement, based on economists’ projections ahead of a government report. Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.

The focus of the U.S. presidential race shifts to the Oct. 4 debate between the running mates -- Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Mike Pence. It’s their only face-to-face forum. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump continue to campaign in swing states ahead of their next showdown, on Oct. 9 in St. Louis.

The annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank takes place in Washington.

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May and her most senior ministers speak at the Conservative Party’s annual conference as investors are focused on Brexit developments.

Australia and Poland set interest rates.

Google will unveil new devices at an event in San Francisco, while Monsanto Co. and Tesco Plc are among companies releasing earnings.

Saturday, Oct. 1

  • The Sochi International Investment Forum continues. Click here for the schedule.

  • The Ryder Cup, the biennial men’s golf competition between teams from Europe and the U.S., continues at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska, Minnesota. Through Oct. 2.

  • The Rugby Championship fifth round takes place, with South Africa hosting Australia and New Zealand visiting Argentina. Click here for the schedule and match times.

  • ECONOMY: China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (Sept.).

Sunday, Oct. 2

  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is interviewed on the BBC’s flagship politics program, “The Andrew Marr Show,” ahead of her Conservative Party’s annual conference. Brexit plans are likely to be the main theme. About 09:00 in Birmingham, England (04:00 EDT). Tory leaders’ conference speeches begin about 14:45 (09:45 EDT).

  • Hungary holds a referendum on European Union migrant quotas, an election backed by the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The vote may not clear the 50 percent turnout threshold needed to make it binding. Timing to be determined.

  • Colombians vote in a referendum on the historic peace agreement to end conflict with the Marxist rebel group FARC. Polls show a majority will probably support the deal. Results are expected on Sunday evening.

  • India’s Minister of Finance Arun Jaitley will address the Rotman School of Management in Toronto on “India’s Changing Policy Landscape.” 17:00 EDT.

  • Formula One’s Malaysian Grand Prix takes place in Kuala Lumpur. Click here for race timetable.

Monday, Oct. 3

  • U.S. factory activity probably stagnated in September after contracting a month earlier, underscoring persistent weakness that is hounding American manufacturing, economists forecast the Institute for Supply Management to report. 10:00 in Washington.

  • Automakers report U.S. September sales, usually starting with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV at about 10:00 EDT. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate may have been about 17.6 million, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

  • The U.S. Supreme Court begins a new nine-month term in Washington.

  • U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond may give indications of his tax and spending plans at the Conservative Party conference. About 12:00 in Birmingham (07:00 EDT). U.K. Trade Secretary Liam Fox, one of the key ministers involved in Brexit negotiations, speaks at about 15:45.

  • Nobel Prize week begins in Stockholm. The first prize awarded is for physiology or medicine, followed by physics on Oct. 4 and chemistry on Oct. 5. The Peace Prize will be awarded in Oslo on Oct. 7. Click here for background on the prizes and timing.

  • The American Society/Council of the Americas holds its 2016 Latin American Cities conference in Lima. Speakers include Petroperu Chairman Augusto Baertl and Buenaventura Mining Co. Inc. CEO Roque Benavides. Begins at 08:30 local time (09:30 EDT).

  • Brazil President Michel Temer travels to Argentina and Paraguay to meet Presidents Mauricio Macri and Horacio Cartes. They are expected to discuss regional trade and Venezuela’s membership in the Mercosur trade bloc. It’s Temer’s first bilateral trip since he succeeded the impeached Dilma Rousseff.

  • The South African Reserve Bank holds its biannual Monetary Policy Forum and releases its Monetary Policy Review analyzing inflation and interest-rate trends over the past six months. 18:00 in Pretoria (12:00 EDT).

  • CENTRAL BANKS: Kazakhstan rate decision.

  • ECONOMY: U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI (Sept. final) and construction spending (Aug.); Markit Mexico PMI manufacturing (Sept.); Brazil monthly trade balance and manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Australia house prices (Sept.); Indonesia CPI (Sept.); Singapore private home prices (3Q); Thailand CPI (Sept.); South Africa manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Turkey inflation and PMI (Sept.); Euro-area manufacturing PMI (Sept.); U.K. manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Russia manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Hungary manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Poland manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Czech manufacturing PMI and budget balance (Sept.)

  • EARNINGS: Zojirushi Corp. is among companies posting results. For an expanded list of today’s releases, click here.

  • ENERGY/COMMODITIES: USDA grain-export ratings (weekly), Manitoba crop update (weekly).

Tuesday, Oct. 4

  • U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker will speak at the West Virginia Economic Outlook Conference in Charleston, West Virginia, at 08:05 EDT.

  • Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence and Democrat Tim Kaine will debate at Longwood University, in Farmville, Virginia. The debate begins at 21:00 EDT and will be moderated by Elaine Quijano, CBSN anchor.

  • U.K. Home Secretary Amber Rudd, who’s responsible for immigration, addresses the Conservative Party conference at about 12:00 in Birmingham (07:00 EDT).

  • The European Parliament discusses Greece’s economy and progress on reforms as the country gets ready for creditors to approve its next aid payout. Session begins at 15:00 CET (09:00 EST) in Strasbourg, France.

  • A Spanish court opens a trial into whether the governing People’s Party used a campaign slush fund between 1990 and 2005. Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, the PP’s leader, denies wrongdoing. Session begins at 09:30 CET (03:30 EDT).

  • The Brussels Conference on Afghanistan focuses on international support for Afghanistan and reform. Through Oct. 5.

  • Expedia Inc. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi and Teddy Goff, a technology adviser to the Obama and Clinton campaigns, are among speakers at the GeekWire Summit 2016 for industrial professionals in Seattle. Click here for the agenda. Through Oct. 5.

Google Home

Source: Google
  • Google will unveil devices at an event in San Francisco. It’s likely to show off a “Home” gadget that competes with Inc.’s Echo, along with new phones and other products. Begins at 09:00 local time (12:00 EDT).

  • CENTRAL BANKS: Australia rate decision; follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.

  • ECONOMY: U.S. ISM New York (Sept.); Brazil industrial production (Aug.); New Zealand house prices (Sept.)

  • EARNINGS: Micron Technology Inc. is among companies posting results. For an expanded list of today’s releases, click here.

  • ENERGY/COMMODITIES: American Petroleum Institute petroleum inventory report (weekly)

Wednesday, Oct. 5

  • Growth at U.S. service producers probably expanded at a faster pace in September after the worst reading since February 2010, economists forecast the Institute for Supply Management to report. 10:00 in Washington.

  • Two regional Federal Reserve bank presidents will be speaking. Chicago’s Charles Evans will address an event sponsored by the CFA Society New Zealand in Auckland at 12:00 local time (Oct. 4 19:00 EDT). Richmond’s Jeffrey Lacker will speak to students at Marshall University in Huntington, West Virginia. 17:00 EDT.

  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May winds up the Conservative Party conference, her first as premier, with the keynote speech at about 12:00 (07:00 EDT).

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel speak on the economy at a conference of Germany’s BGA export-industry association. Event starts at 14:00 CET (08:00 EDT).

  • U.S. Supreme Court hears arguments on an insider trading case. Its ruling will clarify an issue at the heart of the federal crackdown on insider trading over the past eight years. The case is Salman v. U.S., 15-628.

  • CENTRAL BANKS: Rate decisions in Iceland and Poland

  • ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), ADP private employment and Markit services PMI (Sept.), and trade deficit and factory orders (Aug.); Russia CPI (weekly); Chile economic activity (Aug.); Colombia inflation (Sept.); Taiwan CPI (Sept.); Philippines CPI (Sept.); South Africa whole economy PMI (Sept.); Euro-area services PMI (Sept.); U.K. services PMI (Sept.)

  • EARNINGS: Monsanto Co. and Tesco Plc are among companies reporting results. For a list of today’s releases, click here.

  • ENERGY/COMMODITIES: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory report (weekly), with real-time coverage on the TOPLive blog here. Bloomberg survey of analysts’ expectations on natural gas volume in storage (weekly).

Thursday, Oct. 6

  • Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins will speak at the University of Quebec at Trois Rivieres at 11:50 EDT. The remarks will be published on the bank’s website at 11:35.

  • CEOs Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and James Gorman of Morgan Stanley join Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, as keynote speakers at the annual membership meeting of the Institute of International Finance. Click here for the agenda. In Washington, through Oct. 8.

  • The ECB publishes the account of its monetary-policy meeting in September. 13:30 CET in Frankfurt (07:30 EDT).

  • ECONOMY: U.S. Challenger job-cut announcements (Sept.), jobless claims and consumer comfort index (weekly); South Africa business confidence (Sept.); Germany factory orders (Aug.); Czech retail sales (Aug.)

  • EARNINGS: Seven & i Holdings Co. is among companies reporting results. For an expanded list of today’s releases, click here.

  • ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Bloomberg survey of analysts’ expectations on natural gas prices (weekly), EIA natural gas inventory report (weekly), Saskatchewan crop update (weekly), Buenos Aires Grain Exchange crop report (weekly), USDA crop net-export sales (weekly), UN food-price index (Sept.)

Friday, Oct. 7

  • U.S. employment probably increased by around 175,000 in September, indicating hiring is settling into a more sustained pace after robust advances last year, economists project a Labor Department report to show. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.9 percent, and worker pay probably rose. 08:30 in Washington.

  • The 2016 annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank is held in Washington. Managing Director Christine Lagarde will have a one-on-one conversation with financial journalist Michael Lewis, author of “The Big Short.” Click here for the schedule. Through Oct. 9.

  • U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks at the Institute of International Finance annual meeting in Washington, as will Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins. Fed Governor Lael Brainard takes part in a panel discussion on trade. Click here for the day’s agenda.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester will deliver the keynote address before the Shadow Open Market Committee in New York City at 12:45.

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses the senior-citizen caucus of her Christian Democratic Union at a conference in Magdeburg at 09:00 CET (03:00 EDT).
  • Pedro Kuczynski, president of Peru, and Rafael Correa, president of Ecuador, will meet in Macas, Ecuador, along with their cabinets. Timing to be determined.
  • CENTRAL BANKS: Argentina monetary report (Aug.)

  • ECONOMY: U.S. wholesale inventories and consumer credit (Aug.); Chile inflation (Sept.); Mexico inflation (Sept.); Brazil IPCA inflation (Sept.); Canada unemployment rate (Sept.); China foreign reserves (Sept.); Taiwan trade data (Sept.); South Africa gross and net reserves (Sept.) and non-farm payrolls (2Q); Germany industrial production (Aug.); U.K. industrial production (Aug.) and Halifax house prices (Sept.); Romania GDP (2Q); Czech industrial production (Aug.); Hungary industrial production (Aug.); Ukraine CPI (Sept.)

  • EARNINGS: Takashimaya Co. is among companies reporting earnings. For a list of today’s releases, click here.

  • ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Baker Hughes U.S. oil-and-gas rig count (weekly), Alberta crop update (weekly), CFTC futures and options positions (weekly)

  • SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Belarus (S&P), Cape Verde (S&P), Ethiopia (Fitch), Italy (Moody’s), Latvia (Moody’s), Morocco (S&P), Norway (Fitch), Romania (S&P), Saudi Arabia (S&P), Spain (DBRS), Switzerland (Fitch), U.S. (Moody’s)

Saturday, Oct. 8

No calendar events on this day.

(Meeting of Pedro Kuczynski, president of Peru with Rafael Correa, president of Ecuador, will take place Friday, Oct. 7, not Saturday, Oct. 8.)

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