German 10-Year Bond Yield Touches Week-High on Fed Rate Message

Updated on
  • Spanish securities steady before government confidence vote
  • Euro-area supply may total EU30 billion this week: Commerzbank

Germany’s 10-year bond yields climbed to the highest in more than a week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen bolstered speculation that the central bank will raise interest rates this year.

Europe’s benchmark securities were little changed, after dropping earlier on Monday, as investors awaited reports due this week covering inflation to business confidence, and before the European Central Bank’s next policy announcement on Sept. 8.

Bonds across the euro region may come under pressure as investors also await a wave of new supply, after a summer lull that saw Germany being the sole issuer last week. Offerings via banks may push the total this week to as much as 30 billion euros ($33.5 billion), according to Commerzbank AG.

“The sentiment regarding possible Fed rate hikes changed because of the latest
comment from Yellen, and we saw the Treasury 10-year yield rising on Friday,” said Christian Reicherter, an analyst at DZ Bank AG in Frankfurt. “That’s the reason why bunds also moved today.”

Benchmark 10-year bund yields were at minus 0.082 percent as of 4:48 p.m. London time. The yield earlier reached minus 0.035 percent, the highest since Aug. 19. The price of the zero percent security due in August 2026 was 100.822 percent of face value.

Bund yields fluctuated as a U.K. public holiday restricted trading volume on the benchmark 10-year bund futures contract to the lowest since July 4.

Fischer’s Sentiment

Treasuries slid Friday as Yellen said at a gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the case for a rate increase was getting stronger, while Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer indicated a tightening is possible at the next review.

Fed fund futures indicate a 40 percent chance that the central bank will raise rates next month, up from zero in late June after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. The odds of an increase by December are 63 percent, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The calculation assumes the effective fed funds rate will average 0.625 percent after the central bank’s next increase.

Spain’s bonds were little changed before Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces the start of a confidence vote Tuesday, still shy of the votes needed for him to start a second term.

The yield on Spain’s 10-year securities was 0.94 percent.