Jobs Data as Fed Fodder: Week Ahead Aug. 29-Sept. 3by , , and
Spain lawmakers decide on Rajoy; McCain has primary challenge
ICBC, Salesforce.com report earnings; U.S. Open tennis begins
Payroll growth in the U.S. probably moderated in August after the strongest two months of hiring this year. That’s the consensus of economists surveyed ahead of a Labor Department report in the coming week. It’s the last monthly update on job gains before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 21. Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.
Consumer spending is forecast to have climbed in July along with U.S. incomes, while manufacturing likely expanded at a slower pace, other data will show.
Canadian gross domestic product figures may indicate the economy contracted in the second quarter. Brazil and Israel set monetary policy.
The world’s biggest automakers report U.S. sales for August.
Monday, Aug. 29
- Personal spending in the U.S. probably increased in July for a fourth straight month as income growth quickened, economists forecast the Commerce Department will report. 08:30 in Washington.
- Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos and Economy Minister George Stathakis are scheduled to meet European Union Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici. Timing in Brussels to be determined.
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks at a rally of her Christian Democratic Union in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where voters cast ballots on Sept. 4. Polls suggest an anti-immigration party may win about 20 percent of the vote in the state, which is home to Merkel’s electoral district. 19:00 CET in Schwerin (13:00 EDT).
- Statoil ASA Chief Executive Officer Eldar Saetre, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance and Royal Dutch Shell Plc CEO Ben Van Beurden are among speakers on the opening day of the ONS Conference on the global offshore oil and gas industry in Stavanger, Norway. Begins at 09:30 (03:30 EDT). Through Sept. 1.
- Estonia holds the first round of its presidential election. Incumbent Toomas Ilves can’t stand for a third term. Foreign Minister Marina Kaljurand and former European Commissioner Siim Kallas are the front-runners.
- ECONOMY: Dallas Fed manufacturing (Aug.); Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (weekly); Mexico unemployment rate (July); Colombia GDP (second quarter); Italy confidence (Aug.).
- CENTRAL BANKS: Israel rate decision.
- EARNINGS: Uralkali PJSC and Exor SpA among companies reporting results. For an expanded list of today’s releases, click here.
- ENERGY/COMMODITIES: ICE Futures Europe releases its weekly Commitments of Traders report on net speculative positions in Brent crude futures at about 12:45 CET (06:45 EDT); U.S. Department of Agriculture weekly crop progress report by state (16:00 EDT).
- Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic are the No. 1 women’s and men’s seeds as the U.S. Open tennis championship begins at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing, New York. Through Sept. 11.
Tuesday, Aug. 30
- Consumer confidence in the U.S. probably cooled in August for a second month, economists project the Conference Board in New York will report. 10:00.
- Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada wrap up fiscal third-quarter earnings season for Canada’s largest lenders. Scotiabank reports Tuesday, while Montreal-based National Bank posts results Wednesday. Smaller lenders will also report earnings this week, with Laurentian Bank of Canada on Wednesday and Canadian Western Bank on Thursday.
- Estonia holds additional presidential voting if there’s no first-ballot majority winner. A second and third round would be held the same day if needed. If there is still no majority winner, the Electoral Chamber, which includes lawmakers and members of local governments, will vote within a month.
- Lawmakers on the ballot in Tuesday’s U.S. primary elections include Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona and Florida Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee.
- Deere & Co. is among companies participating in the 2016 Farm Progress Show in Boone, Iowa. 09:30 (10:30 EDT). Through Sept. 1.
- Synopsys Inc. and HP Inc. are among companies scheduled to participate in the Jefferies Semiconductor, Hardware & Communications Infrastructure Summit. In Chicago through Aug. 31.
- The Brazil Wind Power Conference begins in Rio. Talks will center around the state of the Latin American wind industry, with speeches from Brazil’s Energy Minister Fernando Coelho Filho and other policy makers. For a complete schedule of events, click here. 09:00 (08:00 EDT). Through Sept. 1.
- Embraer SA, Textron Inc. and Bombardier Inc. are among companies participating in the Latin American Business Aviation Conference & Exhibition. More than 40 aircraft will be on exhibit. In Sao Paulo through Sept. 1.
- Vietnam President Tran Dai Quang delivers the 38th Singapore Lecture at the city-state’s Ritz-Carlton hotel. 09:30 (08/29 21:30 EDT)
- ECONOMY: U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home-price index (June); Canada current account balance (second quarter); Brazil IGP-M inflation (Aug) and unemployment rate (July); Chile copper production (July); Australia building approvals (July); South Africa M3 money supply and private-sector credit (July); Hungary unemployment (July); Poland GDP (second quarter, final); euro-area economic confidence (Aug.); U.K. mortgage approvals (July); German inflation (Aug.).
- EARNINGS: Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and H&R Block Inc. are among companies announcing earnings. For an expanded list of today’s releases, click here.
Wednesday, Aug. 31
- Canada’s gross domestic product probably contracted 1.6 percent in the second quarter, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey as of Aug. 25, as wildfires cut oil production and a weaker exchange rate failed to revive manufacturing. 08:30 in Ottawa.
- Brazil’s central bank announces its rate decision, and probably will keep borrowing costs unchanged at 14.25 percent for a ninth straight meeting. Annual inflation is still almost double the bank’s 4.5 percent target. 18:00 in Brasilia (17:00 EDT).
- Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy and ex-Prime Minister Alain Juppe, leading candidates to win the presidential nomination of the Republican party, participate in the annual conference of the nation’s biggest business lobby. Sarkozy speaks at 10:30 CET near Paris (04:30 EDT), with Juppe following at 18:00.
- Spanish lawmakers vote on whether to back caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy for a second term after a daylong debate. If he falls short of a majority, a second round of balloting will be held Friday, with the winner needing a plurality to take office. Timing to be determined.
- State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi leads peace talks with armed ethnic groups through Sept. 4 in Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon is scheduled to address the talks on Sept. 1.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren and European Central Bank Executive Board member Peter Praet participate in the conference, “Business Cycles, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy with Special Application to China,” hosted by the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance in Beijing. 15:15 (03:15 EDT).
- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari discusses the role of the U.S. central bank and its board. 07:00 (08:00 EDT) in St. Paul, Minnesota.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew speaks at the Brookings Institution on what to expect at the Sept. 4-5 Group of 20 leaders’ summit in Hangzhou, China. 08:30 in Washington.
- European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at a banking conference. 14:45 CET in Frankfurt (08:45 EDT).
- CENTRAL BANKS: Colombia rate decision, Mexico quarterly inflation report.
- ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), ADP private employment (Aug.), Chicago PMI (Aug.) and pending home sales (July); Brazil GDP (second quarter) and primary budget balance (July); Chile unemployment rate (July); India GDP (second quarter); Nigeria GDP (second quarter) and CPI (July); South Africa trade balance (July); Kenya CPI (Aug.); Portugal GDP (second quarter); Turkey trade balance (July); Russia weekly CPI; euro-area unemployment and inflation (both for Aug.); German unemployment (Aug.); Italy inflation (Aug.) and unemployment (July).
- EARNINGS: Salesforce.com Inc., Bouygues SA and Ctrip.com International Ltd. are among companies announcing earnings. For a list of today’s releases, click here.
- ENERGY/COMMODITIES: U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly oil inventory report at 10:30 EDT, with real-time coverage on the TOPLive blog here.
Thursday, Sept. 1
- Automakers report U.S. sales results for August, with investors watching whether trucks and SUVs will again outnumber cars by almost 3-to-2. Early economists’ estimates were for an annualized selling rate of 17.3 million vehicles. Ford Motor Co. usually reports at 9:15 EDT, followed by General Motors Co. at about 09:30.
- U.S. factory activity in August probably expanded at a slower pace from July, but still enough to indicate manufacturing is stabilizing after pulling out of a prolonged slump. The Institute for Supply Management issues its index at 10:00 in Washington.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester delivers the keynote address at the Kentucky Summit on Philanthropy. 12:15 in Lexington, Kentucky. For full schedule, click here.
- French Finance Minister Michel Sapin sets out his vision for the 2017 budget. 09:30 CET in Paris (03:30 EDT).
- ECONOMY: U.S. Challenger job-cut announcements (Aug.), productivity (second quarter, final), jobless claims (weekly), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (weekly); Markit manufacturing PMI (Aug., final) and construction spending (July); RBC Canadian manufacturing PMI (Aug.); Markit Brazil PMI manufacturing (Aug); Markit Mexico manufacturing PMI (Aug.); Chinamanufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI and Caixin manufacturing PMI (all for Aug.); Australia house prices (Aug.), manufacturing (Aug.) and retail sales (July); Russia PMI (Aug.); euro-area manufacturing PMI (Aug., final); U.K. manufacturing PMI (Aug.).
- EARNINGS: Broadcom Ltd., Pernod Ricard SA and Campbell Soup Co. are among companies announcing earnings. For an expanded list of today’s releases, click here.
- ENERGY/COMMODITIES: U.S. EIA weekly natural gas inventory report at 10:30 EDT.
Friday, Sept. 2
- U.S. employment probably increased by around 180,000 in August, indicating hiring is settling into a more sustainable pace after robust advances in the previous two months, economists project a Labor Department report will show. The unemployment rate is forecast to decline to a three-month low of 4.8 percent from 4.9 percent, and worker pay probably increased. 08:30 in Washington.
- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Park Geun Hye are among leaders set to attend the two-day Eastern Economic Forum hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok. Abe is scheduled to meet with Putin as the two nations seek to resolve a territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker discusses “Interest Rate Benchmarks” before the Virginia Association of Economists and Richmond Association for Business Economics. 13:00 in Richmond, Virginia.
- European Union foreign ministers begin a two-day meeting in Bratislava, Slovakia, with fallout from Brexit likely to be a topic of discussion. Timing to be determined.
- Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch and Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem are among speakers at the European House-Ambrosetti’s “Intelligence on the World, Europe, and Italy” forum in Cernobbio, Italy. Through Sept. 4.
- ECONOMY: U.S. trade balance (July), ISM New York (Aug.), factory orders (July) and durable goods orders (July, final); Canada labor productivity (second quarter) and international merchandise trade (July); Brazil industrial production (July); Czech GDP (second quarter).
- EARNINGS: Hyprop Investments Ltd. is among companies announcing earnings. For an expanded list of today’s releases, click here.
- ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Baker Hughes U.S. oil-and-gas rig count (weekly). 13:00 EDT.
- SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Andorra (Fitch); Belgium (DBRS); Finland (Fitch); Greece (Fitch); Ireland (DBRS); Lebanon (S&P); Malta (Moody’s); Namibia (Fitch & Moody’s); Portugal (Moody’s); Qatar (S&P); Republic of Congo (Fitch); Sweden (S&P).
Saturday, Sept. 3
- Most U.S. major-college football programs begin play for the 2016 regular season.