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Citigroup: A Trump Victory in November Could Cause a Global Recession

Economic growth would suffer, says Willem Buiter.
Presidential Candidate Donald Trump Holds Wisconsin Town Hall Event
Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States could lead to chaos in markets and increased policy uncertainty that tip the world into recession, according to Citigroup Inc.

"A Trump victory in particular could prolong and perhaps exacerbate policy uncertainty and deliver a shock (though perhaps short-lived) to financial markets," writes a team led by Chief Economist Willem Buiter. "Tightening financial conditions and further rises in uncertainty could trigger a significant slowdown in U.S., but also global growth."