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Calpers Braces for Lower Returns in ‘Most Challenging Market’

  • Largest U.S. pension fund may gain 6.2% a year, Wilshire says
  • Depressed interest rates, uncertain stock market dim outlook

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest U.S. public pension fund, is ratcheting down expected investment gains over the next decade as low interest rates and a gloomier stock market depress returns.

The $306.2 billion pension fund expects an average return of 6.21 percent, which is 90 basis points, or 0.9 percent, less than the forecast two years ago, Chief Investment Officer Ted Eliopoulos said Monday at an investment committee meeting. The forecast came from consultant Wilshire Associates, which issued a rosier long-term prediction: a 7.83 percent return over 30 years.