Ruble Volatility Slides as Yield Chase Undermines Link With Oil

The ruble’s expected price swings headed for their biggest weekly drop in more than a month as the currency withstands volatility in the price of oil, Russia’s biggest export.

One-month implied volatility in the ruble, a measure of how much traders project the exchange rate will fluctuate in the period, fell 1.76 percentage points this week to 13.74 percent, the lowest since October 2014. The ruble has gained 1.1 percent in four days, while Brent crude, used to price Russia’s main export blend, is down 0.5 percent.

"Oil is indeed a secondary factor these days, especially that this time around the speculative play in oil is much less enthusiastic,” said Alexander Losev, chief executive officer at Sputnik Asset Management in Moscow. “The carry trade is the main driver right now.”

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