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Is Jobs Data Losing Fed Path Influence?

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It's jobs day, RBS results disappoint, and polls show Trump is in trouble. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

Jobs day

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish U.S. payrolls data for July at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting the economy to have added 180,000 positions in the month. The report is also expected to show unemployment falling to 4.8 percent, and average hourly earnings growth holding steady at 2.6 percent. With yesterday's jobless claims number remaining under 300,000 for a 74th straight week, a repeat of May's disappointing number would be a huge surprise. Ahead of the data, the dollar is becalmed while Treasury volatility is rising.

RBS, Allianz results disappoint

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc warned that it will probably take longer than expected to reach profitability targets as the company posted a second quarter net loss of 1.08 billion pounds ($1.4 billion), more than four times what analysts had estimated. Share in the bank were trading 5.3 percent lower at 5:51 a.m. ET. Allianz SE also disappointed the market, reporting net income of 1.1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) for the second quarter, well below average analyst estimates of 1.55 billion euros. Pacific Investment Management Co., part of Allianz's asset-management unit saw third-party outflows of 18 billion euros in the quarter. Shares in Allianz were 4.3 percent lower at 5:55 a.m ET.

Oil slips, copper warning

After rising as much as 6.1 percent in the past two days, oil is paring some of those gains this morning ahead of the jobs number and U.S. rig count data later. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for September traded at $41.49 at 6:05 a.m. ET. Former Federal Reserve Chair, Alan Greenspan, has said that he expects current levels to be the bottom in the oil price. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has a warning for copper bulls, saying that they see a "supply storm" coming in the industrial metal and predict the commodity will drop 17 percent over the next 12 months. 

Markets waiting for jobs data

Global markets are treading water ahead of payrolls data. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.7 percent with Japan's Topix index closing 0.2 percent lower. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3 percent higher at 6:08 a.m. ET, reducing its loss for the week to 0.9 percent. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2 percent

Trump polling

A raft of new polls show the Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump slipping well behind Hillary Clinton. One national poll showed the Democratic party nominee with a 15-point lead over Trump. Bloomberg Politics sent two reporters on a 3,000 mile bus trip across the country to gauge the national mood. 

What we've been reading 

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

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