Japan Pension Whale’s $52 Billion Loss Tied to Passive Waysby and
GPIF posts worst annual results since global financial crisis
Only about 20% of fund’s investments are actively managed
Friday was a big day for the world’s largest pension fund, which posted its worst annual loss since the financial crisis and disclosed individual equity holdings for the first time. The two may be connected.
The list of domestic shares owned by Japan’s $1.3 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund hews closely to the benchmark Topix index, which isn’t that surprising for a fund where almost 80 percent of investments are passive. But it means that in market downturns like in the past year, GPIF will struggle to increase assets.
The fund recorded a 5.3 trillion yen ($52 billion) loss for the 12 months ended March, the largest decline in seven years. Japan stock holdings tumbled 10.8 percent. For Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co., GPIF should branch out from hugging indexes.
“There’s more they can do,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, a senior strategist at the Tokyo-based money manager. “They should be more active with their currency hedging and their investments. They should also look to increase exposure to alternatives.”
While criticism of GPIF’s passive approach to investing isn’t new, this is the first year the fund posted a loss since it doubled its allocation to stocks in 2014 and reduced its investments in domestic bonds, which were the only asset to return a profit in the year. The fund is taking flak on both sides, from those who want to turn back the clock to when it held more bonds to people who say it should become more of a stock picker.
The Topix index fell 0.1 percent at the close in Tokyo on Monday, as the yen traded at 102.43 per dollar following a 3.1 percent jump on Friday.
GPIF’s investment loss of 3.8 percent was the worst since a 7.6 percent slide in the 12 months ended March 2009. The fund lost 9.6 percent on foreign shares and 3.3 percent on overseas debt, while gaining 4.1 percent on Japanese bonds. GPIF said Toyota Motor Corp. and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., which have the largest weightings in the Topix, were the biggest Japan stock investments as of March 31, 2015.
GPIF’s Canadian pension peer, hailed as an example of how the Japanese fund should be run, posted a 3.4 percent return on investments for the fiscal year ended March, despite the global equity rout. The $212 billion Canada Pension Plan Investment Board had its biggest gains from private emerging market equities, real estate and infrastructure. South Korea’s national pension fund had a return rate of 2.4 percent this year as of April.
The Canadian retirement manager wrote in its 2016 annual report about how it had moved away from passively managing its portfolio to take advantage of its size, certainty of pension contributions and long-term investment horizon. The fund has just 19 percent of its holdings invested in Canada, whereas GPIF has 59 percent in Japanese securities.
“GPIF should invest more actively but from a long-term perspective,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “That’s the only way they can improve their returns.”
GPIF President Norihiro Takahashi, speaking after the results announcement on Friday, said the fund planned to use its allowable deviation limits when allocating assets, in a sign he will be flexible in managing the portfolio.
In 2013, a panel handpicked by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recommended ways to overhaul GPIF. While suggesting the fund move away from its concentrated investments in Japanese bonds, which it did the next year, the group led by Columbia University professor Takatoshi Ito said GPIF should consider increasing active management, moving some investments in-house, and tracking indexes other than the Topix as it includes stocks “lacking sufficient investment profitability.”
GPIF took some suggestions on board, including adopting the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 as a new benchmark equity measure. Still, the fund’s overseers stopped short of letting the fund make in-house stock investments, a course that GPIF Chief Investment Officer Hiromichi Mizuno said would have helped cut costs and increase internal expertise.
GPIF also lost on overseas assets last fiscal year as the yen advanced 6.7 percent against the dollar, reducing the value of investments when repatriated. It wasn’t until December last year that reports said GPIF would start to hedge against currency fluctuations for a small part of its investments, a strategy called for almost a year earlier by one of its investment advisers.
“The results should lead to a debate on searching for new investments, whether it’s alternative assets, domestic small and mid-cap corporate debt, REITs or real estate,” said Akio Yoshino, chief economist at Amundi Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “But the mainstream expectation is that GPIF probably won’t change its management direction.”