Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Survey for July Meeting: Survey

  • Seventy-eight percent of analysts see more stimulus this month
  • More ETF buys, cutting negative rate are most popular choices

Thirty-two of 41 respondents surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast the Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy at the meeting on July 28-29.

Click here to see previous BOJ policy surveys

Following are the results of the most recent survey, conducted 15-22 July.

1. What are your expectations for policy at this meeting?

                 Current BOJ Target
Monetary BaseJGBsETFsJREITSNegative Rate
Economist & FirmWhen add easing80t yen80t yen3t yen90b yen-0.1%
Barclays PLC, MoritaJuly 201680805150-0.3
Bloomberg Intelligence, MasujimaJuly 20169085490-0.3
BNP Paribas, KonoJuly 20168080390-0.3
Capital Economics, ThieliantJuly 20169085890-0.3
Citigroup, MurashimaJuly 20168080690-0.3
Credit Agricole, OgataJanuary 2017 or later8080390-0.1
Credit Suisse, ShirakawaNov 20168080390-0.1
Dai-Ichi Life, KumanoSept 20168080390-0.1
Daiwa Research, KumagaiJuly 201680805120-0.1
Daiwa Securities, NoguchiJuly 20168080390-0.2
Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. , MorizaneJuly 20168080490-0.2
Goldman Sachs, BabaJuly 20168080690-0.3
HSBC Holdings, NeumannJuly 20169090690-0.1
Itochu Eco. Res. Inst., TakedaJuly 201690904100-0.1
Japan Macro Adv., OkuboNov 20168080390-0.1
Japan Research, YamadaJuly 20168080590-0.1
JPMorgan Chase, KannoJuly 20161001006200-0.3
Meiji Yasuda, KodamaJuly 2016100100590-0.2
Mitsubishi UFJ Sec., MugurumaJuly 201690N/A6180-0.1
Mitsubishi UJF BCR, ShimanakaJuly 201690854.5150-0.1
Mits. Res. & Cons., KobayashiJuly 201680804100-0.1
Mizuho Bank, KarakamaNov 20168080390-0.1
Mizuho Research, TakataJuly 201680805150-0.1
Mizuho Securities, UenoNov 20168080390-0.1
NLI Research, YajimaJuly 20168085590-0.2
Nomura Research Inst., InoueJuly 20169090590-0.1
Nomura Securities, MatsuzawaJuly 2016100N/A5110-0.3
Nord/LB, Grosse------
Norinchukin Res., MinamiJuly 20161009013100-0.1
Okasan Securities, AtagoJuly 2016100N/A6150-0.1
Resona Bank, KuroseJuly 20168080390-0.2
Shinshu University, MakabeJuly 201690904150-0.2
SMBC Bank, NishiokaJuly 20168080IncreaseN/A-0.3
SMBC Friend, IwashitaNov 20168080390-0.1
SMBC Nikko, MoritaJuly 201685854120-0.2
SMBC Trust Bank, HanadaJuly 2016100N/AN/AN/A-0.2
Societe Generale, AidaJuly 20168585590-0.2
Standard Chartered, WangSept 20168080390-0.1
Tokai Tokyo Research, MutoJuly 20168080590-0.2
Tokai Tokyo Sec., SanoSept 20168080390-0.1
Totan Research, KatoJuly 2016-----
UBS Securities, AokiJuly 20169085390-0.2

Note: Izuru Kato forecasts the bank will ease this month, but will use a new policy framework.

2) When do you next expect the BOJ to expand monetary stimulus?

Meeting PeriodResponsesPercent of total
July 20163278.0%
Sept 201637.3%
Nov 2016512.2%
Dec 20160-
January 2017 or later12.4%
Don’t expect additional stimulus0-

3) How would the BOJ ease more next time? (multiple answers possible)

Method of easingResponsesPercent of total
Increase pace of monetary base expansion2051.28%
Increase pace of JGB accumulation1846.15%
Increase pace of ETF accumulation2871.79%
Increase pace of J-REIT accumulation1435.90%
Cut excess reserve rate from -0.1%2564.10%
Response Count39

4) The Bank of Japan has said that Core CPI (inflation excluding fresh food, and also excluding the effects of the sales tax rises) is likely to reach around 2% y/y -- the price stability target -- during FY2017.
Do you think this forecast is achievable?


5. Comparison of response on timing of more easing.

Last SurveyThis Survey
Barclays PLC, MoritaJuly 2016July 2016
Bloomberg Intelligence, Masujima-July 2016
BNP Paribas, KonoJuly 2016July 2016
Capital Economics, ThieliantJuly 2016July 2016
Citigroup, MurashimaJuly 2016July 2016
Credit Agricole, OgataJanuary 2017 or laterJanuary 2017 or later
Credit Suisse, ShirakawaJuly 2016Nov 2016
Dai-Ichi Life, KumanoJanuary 2017 or laterSept 2016
Daiwa Research, KumagaiJuly 2016July 2016
Daiwa Securities, NoguchiJuly 2016July 2016
Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. , MorizaneJuly 2016July 2016
Goldman Sachs, BabaJuly 2016July 2016
HSBC Holdings, NeumannJune 2016July 2016
Itochu Eco. Res. Inst., TakedaJune 2016July 2016
Japan Macro Adv., OkuboNov 2016Nov 2016
Japan Research, Yamada-July 2016
JPMorgan Chase, KannoJuly 2016July 2016
Meiji Yasuda, KodamaJuly 2016July 2016
Mitsubishi UFJ Sec., MugurumaJuly 2016July 2016
Mitsubishi UJF BCR, ShimanakaJune 2016July 2016
Mits. Res. & Cons., KobayashiJuly 2016July 2016
Mizuho Bank, KarakamaJuly 2016Nov 2016
Mizuho Research, TakataJune 2016July 2016
Mizuho Securities, UenoNov 2016Nov 2016
NLI Research, YajimaJune 2016July 2016
Nomura Research Inst., InoueJuly 2016July 2016
Nomura Securities, MatsuzawaJune 2016July 2016
Nord/LB, GrosseJune 2016-
Norinchukin Res., MinamiJuly 2016July 2016
Okasan Securities, AtagoJune 2016July 2016
Resona Bank, KuroseJuly 2016July 2016
Shinshu University, MakabeJune 2016July 2016
SMBC Bank, NishiokaJuly 2016July 2016
SMBC Friend, IwashitaNov 2016Nov 2016
SMBC Nikko, MoritaJune 2016July 2016
SMBC Trust Bank, HanadaJuly 2016July 2016
Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management, Kichikawa--
Societe Generale, AidaDon’t expect additional stimulusJuly 2016
Standard Chartered, WangJuly 2016Sept 2016
Tokai Tokyo Research, MutoJune 2016July 2016
Tokai Tokyo Sec., SanoJuly 2016Sept 2016
Totan Research, KatoJuly 2016July 2016
UBS Securities, AokiSept 2016July 2016

Note: HSBC economist has changed since last month.