Trump’s Moment; ECB Policy; Bank Earnings: Week Ahead July 16-23

  • China hosts G-20 meeting; May faces first Parliament questions
  • Goldman, BofA, Morgan Stanley will release quarterly results

U.S. Republicans meet to nominate their choice for president at the convention in Cleveland. Donald Trump is the party’s presumptive nominee.

The European Central Bank holds its first scheduled monetary-policy meeting since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.

Markets will get a double dose of U.S. housing news with figures on previously owned home sales and new construction starts in June. While low borrowing costs are sustaining demand, higher prices are limiting the speed at which residential real estate can progress.

China hosts a G-20 meeting in Chengdu.

Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley announce earnings this week, along with General Motors Co., Daimler AG, Microsoft Corp., Novartis AG and Netflix Inc.

Saturday, July 16

-The African Union summit continues in Kigali, Rwanda, with elections for a new chairman and deputy chairman for the African Union Commission. Through July 18.

-The Tour de France, cycling’s most prestigious event, continues through July 24. Click here for the route.

-The 145th British Open, the oldest of golf’s four major tournaments, continues at Royal Troon Golf Club in Scotland. Through July 17.

-The World Series of Poker “Main Event” takes place in Las Vegas. A final table of nine players will emerge on July 18. Tournament officials expect 7,000 players to ante up $10,000 each to buy in to the no-limit Texas Hold ’Em championship.

Sunday, July 17

-Bavarian Premier Horst Seehofer, who leads one of three parties in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition and has been critical of her refugee policy, gives a nationally televised interview at 18:30 CET (12:30 EDT).

-The 14th session of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development starts in Nairobi. Through July 22.

-ECONOMY: Israel GDP (first quarter).

Monday, July 18

-Bank of America Corp. reports quarterly earnings. The release is due before U.S. markets open at 06:45 EDT. Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.

-The Republican National Convention opens in Cleveland. Donald Trump is scheduled to accept his party’s nomination for president on the last day of the convention, July 21.

The main stage of GOP convention arena

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

-Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale speaks at the Resolution Foundation, focusing on the implications of Brexit for monetary policy. 09:15 in London (04:15 EDT).

-European Union foreign ministers and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meet for a working breakfast in Brussels at 08:00 CET (02:00 EDT), ahead of the EU ministers’ first session since Boris Johnson’s appointment as U.K. foreign secretary.

-The U.K. Parliament votes on whether to renew Britain’s commitment to the submarine-launched Trident nuclear missile, which new Prime Minister Theresa May says Britain needs to maintain. Timing to be determined.

-Bank of Spain Governor Luis Maria Linde makes the opening speech at a cooperative banking event. 11:00 CET in Almeria (05:00 EDT).

-SpaceX will launch a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida to resupply the International Space Station and will attempt to recover the first stage of the booster on land. 00:45 EDT.

-U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for the schedule.

-U.S. initial public stock offerings. Click here for the schedule.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Rate decisions in Ghana and Mozambique.

-ECONOMY: U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment (July), U.S. Treasury international capital flows (May), China property prices (June), New Zealand CPI (second quarter), U.K. Rightmove house prices (July), Poland wages, employment (June).

-EARNINGS: Netflix Inc., Charles Schwab Corp., International Business Machines Corp., Yahoo! Inc., Arca Continental SAB, Alfa SAB, Hasbro Inc., VMware Inc., EMC Corp., Steel Dynamics Inc., Avangrid Inc.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: U.S. Agriculture Department crops data (weekly), U.S. EIA drilling productivity (monthly), Bloomberg Intelligence Mid-Year Energy Outlook.

Tuesday, July 19

-Housing starts in the U.S. probably were little changed in June from a month earlier, showing residential construction added little to economic growth in the second quarter, a Commerce Department report is projected to indicate. 08:30 EDT in Washington.

-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reports quarterly earnings at 07:30 EDT, before U.S. markets open. Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.

-The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information releases its latest global temperature and rain data. June’s data may show 2016 is still poised to be Earth’s warmest year on record. 11:00 EDT from Washington.

-The International Monetary Fund will release its latest global macroeconomic forecasts, followed by a press briefing by Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld. 09:00 EDT from Washington.

-Spain’s parliament convenes at 09:00 CET (03:00 EDT) in Madrid for its first session since national elections.

-The European Court of Justice is due to deliver a ruling on a Slovenian bank bailout. 09:30 CET in Luxembourg (03:30 EDT).

-The ECB publishes its quarterly bank lending survey. 10:00 CET in Frankfurt (04:00 EDT).

-The European Union’s Venice Commission may issue an assessment of a Polish senate proposal to overhaul the country’s Constitutional Tribunal.

-Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju Yeol speaks at a conference in Seoul. 09:00 (07/18 20:00 EDT).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, Turkey rate decision.

-ECONOMY: Hong Kong unemployment (June), ZEW German investor confidence (July), U.K. inflation (June), Poland industrial output (June), retail sales (June), Russian unemployment (June), retail sales (June).

-EARNINGS: UnitedHealth Group Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft Corp., Regions Financial Corp., MGIC Investment Corp., Philip Morris International Inc., Prologis Inc., Discover Financial Services, Grupo Aeromexico SAB, Lockheed Martin Corp., Volvo AB, Akzo Nobel NV, Ericsson AB, Kone Oyj, Novartis AG, Telenor ASA.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: American Petroleum Institute inventory report (weekly).

Wednesday, July 20

-Morgan Stanley reports quarterly earnings at 06:45 EDT, before U.S. markets open. Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.

-The European Commission, the EU’s regulatory arm in Brussels, is due to propose emission-reduction goals for its member countries.

-U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will face questions from Parliament for the first time. Timing in London to be determined.

-NATO and Persian Gulf defense ministers will meet at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland to discuss ongoing military operations against the Islamic State. Begins at 08:45 EDT.

-Brazilian central bank policy makers are projected by analysts to keep the key rate unchanged at 14.25 percent as they gather for the first meeting for five of the board’s nine members. 19:00 in Brasilia (18:00 EDT).

-The U.S. Federal Election Commission releases its June report, with details on fundraising by the campaigns of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The May report showed $1.3 million in Trump’s campaign account compared to $42 million for Clinton.

-The Greek Parliament votes on a government bill seeking to amend the country’s electoral system. Timing to be determined.

-ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), Russia weekly CPI (weekly), Taiwan export orders (June), South Africa inflation (June), euro-area consumer confidence (July), U.K. unemployment (June), Russia weekly CPI, Ukrainian retail sales (June).

-EARNINGS: Halliburton Co., Polaris Industries Inc., Tractor Supply Co., Intel Corp., American Express Co., eBay Inc., Mattel Inc., Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd., Gruma SAB, M&T Bank Corp., Qualcomm Inc., FMC Technologies Inc., Newmont Mining Corp., Nordea Bank AB, Electrolux AB, Iberdrola SA.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Bloomberg survey of analysts’ expectations on natural gas volume (weekly), Bloomberg Intelligence Mid-Year Utilities Outlook.

Thursday, July 21

-Purchases of previously owned U.S. homes probably eased in June to a more sustainable pace following the strongest reading in more than nine years, economists forecast the National Association of Realtors to report. 10:00 EDT in Washington.

-The ECB holds its first scheduled monetary-policy meeting since the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union. The interest-rate decision is due at 13:45 CET in Frankfurt (07:45 EDT), with a press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi to follow at 14:30.

-Comic-Con International, the show celebrating comics and popular arts, returns to San Diego for a run through July 24 as the industry comes off its best-selling month for comic books in almost two decades.

-Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa speaks at a breakfast event. 07:30 EDT in Toronto.

-The prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia meet in Warsaw. Timing and agenda to be determined.

-The U.K.’s Parliament holds its last session before a summer recess until Sept. 5.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s assessment of economy; rate decisions in South Africa and Indonesia.

-ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly, July expectations), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (July), Chicago Fed national activity index (June), U.S. FHFA home-price index (May), U.S. index of leading economic indicators (June), Brazil IPCA-15 inflation index (July), Hong Kong consumer price index (June), U.K. retail sales (June), U.K. public-sector borrowing (June).

-EARNINGS: General Motors Co., Southwest Airlines Co., Alliance Data Systems Corp., Huntington Bancshares Inc., Blackstone Group LP, Johnson Controls Inc., Bank of New York Mellon Corp.Citizens Financial Group, Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc., Domino’s Pizza Inc., Pandora Media Inc., Visa Inc., Skyworks Solutions Inc., Starbucks Corp., Crown Castle International Corp., AT&T Inc., Capital One Financial Corp., Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc., Biogen Inc., Union Pacific Corp., Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Maxim Integrated Products Inc., Southwestern Energy Co., BB&T Corp., AltaGas Ltd., Schlumberger Ltd., Encana Corp., Nucor Corp., Cairn India Ltd., Norsk Hydro ASA, Swedbank AB, Danske Bank A/S, ABB Ltd., Daimler AG, Roche Holding AG, Unilever Plc.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Bloomberg survey of analysts’ expectations on U.S. natural gas prices (weekly), U.S. Energy Information Administration energy outlook (annual),  Bloomberg Intelligence Mid-Year Coal & Midstream Oil Outlook, USDA crop net-export sales (weekly).

Friday, July 22

-The Seventh Annual Automotive Cybersecurity Conference is held in Detroit. U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx and General Motors Co. Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra are among the keynote speakers. 08:30 EDT.

-ECONOMY: U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI (July prelim.), Mexico bi-weekly CPI (July 15), Taiwan unemployment (June), Taiwan industrial production (June), ECB quarterly survey of economic forecasters, euro-area PMIs (July), Croatia unemployment (June).

-EARNINGS: General Electric Co., Honeywell International Inc., Moody’s Corp., American Airlines Group Inc., Hypermarcas SA, Controladora Vuela Cia de Aviacion SAB, SunTrust Banks Inc., Synchrony Financial, Textron Inc., Thales SA, Syngenta AG, Banco de Sabadell SA.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Baker Hughes U.S. oil-and-gas rig count (weekly), U.S. CFTC futures and options positions for oil report (weekly).

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Armenia (Fitch), Czech Republic (S&P), Denmark (Moody’s), Estonia (Moody’s), Greece (S&P), Moldova (Moody’s), Romania (Fitch), Saudi Arabia (Moody’s), Uganda (Moody’s).

Saturday, July 23

-China hosts the G-20 this year as finance ministers and central banker governors meet in Chengdu. Through July 24. Timing to be determined.

-Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban speaks to ethnic Hungarians in Baile Tusnad, Romania, a forum that he used in 2015 to urge the European Union to take a hard line against migrants. Starts at 09:35 CET (03:35 EDT).