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If Britain Votes Leave, What Happens Next?

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Voting is underway in the Brexit referendum, markets are rallying, and there's lots of PMI data. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

U.K. voting

Polls in the U.K.'s referendum on membership of the European Union opened at 2 a.m. ET and will close at 5 p.m. ET. Counting of the votes will begin soon after, with the first results expected to start to come in after 7 pm ET. While full view of the likely result will take several hours, Bloomberg will be running a live blog throughout the night to keep you posted on all the developments. 

Markets rally

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8 percent overnight, led by gains in Japanese stocks, with the Topix index climbing adding 1.1 percent. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was rising for the fifth day, up 1.6 percent at 5:56 a.m. ET, with all 19 industry groups in the index higher. S&P 500 futures were 1 percent higher.  

PMI data

A Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing and services in the euro area fell to 52.8 from 53.1 in May, according to Markit Economics. The number, which missed economist estimates, was hit by French manufacturing and services PMI, both of which came in below 50. German composite PMI was at 54.1, in line with estimates, indicating that Europe's largest economy is showing little sign of weakness. 

Where next for oil?

West Texas Intermediate was trading at $49.90 a barrel at 6:20 a.m. ET after a week that has seen large fluctuations in the price of the commodity. Saudi Arabia's energy minister has said that the oil glut is over which would mean price rises over the longer term, while Norway's central bank this morning back-tracked on further easing as the price slump that had hit the oil-exporting economy wanes. European banks are not so bullish on the prospects for oil, however, as they have started scaling back their exposure to the industry. 

Coming up...

While the biggest event in markets is going to be the results of the U.K. referendum, there is still plenty of data to look forward to ahead of that. At 8:30 a.m. ET this week's initial jobless claims number is released, with expectations for 270,000, a 7,000 drop from last week. At 9:45 Markit Economics releases its U.S. manufacturing PMI with economists predicting a small expansion to 50.9. At 10 a.m., new homes sales data should also help give an idea of the health of the broader U.S. economy. 

What we've been reading 

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.