Confidence Rises Across Canada Amid Poloz Optimism

  • Central bank governor said last week recovery remains intact
  • Measures of job security, economic optimism show improvement

Canada consumer confidence reached a 2016 high, driven by an increase in sentiment on job security and expectations for the country’s economy.

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index rose to 58.4 from 57.9 a week earlier, reaching its highest level since November 2015. The index rose in all regions of the country, telephone polling showed, and most strongly in the energy-producing prairies where the commodities slump has dampened growth prospects.

The share of those expecting the Canadian economy to strengthen over the next six months rose to 25.6 from 24.1 a week earlier and narrowly exceeds the share of those expecting it to weaken.

“The Prairies -- previously battered by a drop in the price of a barrel of oil and fires -- are incrementally on the move,” Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos said.

Confidence in the Prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba rose to 50.3 from 49.2 a week earlier, reaching its highest level since November 2015. Confidence also rose in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada.

Rebound Intact

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz last week said last week Canada’s economic rebound was intact, appealing for patience as the country’s economy adjusts to lower oil prices and pivots toward non-energy exports.

The share of those who described their employment as secure jumped to 52.4 from 48.9 a week earlier. On housing, meanwhile, the share of those expecting their home price to increase slid to 43.7 percent from 44.6 percent a week earlier, while those expecting a decrease was unchanged at 14.4 percent.

The Nanos index is based on a four-week rolling average of telephone polling with 1,000 respondents. It’s considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, with larger margins of error in the regional breakdowns. The latest round of polling ended June 17.

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