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Fed's Rate Hike Path: Why Yellen Has to Tread Carefully

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It's Fed day, markets remain focused on Brexit, and MSCI say 'not yet' to China shares. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

Fed meeting

A busy two days for central bank decisions kicks off today with the Federal Reserve set to announce its monetary policy decision at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen. All of the 106 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect no change in interest rates at the meeting while market probabilities of a hike remain at zero percent. The press conference will be watched closely for any guidance on the pace and timing of future rate hikes. Coming overnight is the Bank of Japan, where there are some expectations for further easing. Tomorrow the Bank of England announces its latest decision, with the minutes the last chance for policy makers to outline their Brexit concerns ahead of next week's vote. 

Brexit focus

The improving 'leave' polling has U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne set to warn that a vote to exit the European Union could spark a fiscal crisis. Currency traders have doubled their wagers on the pound returning to levels not seen since the 1980s to $35 billion. There was some good news for the U.K. economy this morning as the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5 percent, and pay growth picked up. The pound advanced after that data and was trading at $1.4202 at 6:10 a.m. ET

MSCI say 'not yet' to China

Chinese domestic shares were not included in MSCI Inc.’s benchmark indexes for a third time, with the company saying policy makers need to do more to improve accessibility to the A share market before those equities can be added to global indexes. Despite the news, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.6 percent amid suspected intervention. There was better news from MSCI for Pakistani markets, already Asia's best performing this year, after shares listed there were added to the company's emerging-markets index. The Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index rose 2.7 percent, closing at a record high, after the announcement.

Markets recover

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1 percent overnight, ending a slump that had seen a 4.4 percent decline over the previous four sessions. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 1.5 percent higher at 6:08 a.m. ET, with the gains led by miners as metal prices staged a recovery. S&P 500 futures were 0.2 percent lower ahead of the Fed decision. 

Clinton's 12-point poll lead

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has opened a 12-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in a national poll conducted by Bloomberg Politics. Clinton held talks with Bernie Sanders over the Vermont senator leaving the race for the Democratic nomination, with a statement from Sanders saying they discussed common goals and the “dangerous threat that Donald Trump poses to our nation.” Trump held a meeting in New York with GOP governors that "went very well."

What we've been reading 

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

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