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Yellen sees rates rising but doesn't say when, the pound gets very volatile, and Clinton clinches the Democratic nomination. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.
Yellen's hawkish/dovish speech
In her last speech ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen managed to walk a line between hawkishness — saying "the federal funds rate will probably need to rise gradually" — and dovishness by not giving any guide as to when that rate rise would come. Treasury 10-year notes fell and the dollar weakened following her address in Philadelphia. Market-implied odds of the next Fed rate hike are now at 2 percent for June, but increase to 42 percent for the September meeting.
Pound gets (more) volatile
Overnight there was a sudden 1.5 percent spike higher in the British pound that traders are attributing to a fat-finger trade. Though the currency quickly unwound the sudden move higher, it has strengthened again throughout the morning, increasing to $1.4567 at 6:06 a.m. ET, the level reached in the immediate aftermath of last Friday's jobs report. The volatility has not gone unnoticed by currency trading banks Saxo Bank A/S and FXCM Inc., which have raised their margin requirements for pound trades. With polling showing the result of the referendum as too close to call, some funds have commissioned their own exit polls, but even that doesn't come without risk.
Clinton clinches Democratic nomination
Hillary Clinton has become the first female presumptive nominee for a major U.S. political party after securing enough delegates to claim the Democratic presidential nomination. Her challenger for the position, Bernie Sanders, has so far refused to drop out of the race, saying he will take the battle to the convention in July in the hopes of winning over enough superdelegates to stop Clinton's victory. President Barack Obama, who spoke with Sanders by phone on Sunday, is expected to endorse Clinton as early as this week.
Euro-area growth quickens
The euro-area economy grew faster than previously estimated in the first quarter, according to a revision released this morning showing that GDP rose 0.6 percent in the period. Increases in both household consumption and investment drove the revision higher. Expectations are for the economy to slow in the second quarter as Brexit risk and elections weigh on sentiment.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1 percent overnight with the weakening yen helping push Japan's Topix Index 0.6 percent higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 1.4 percent by 6:15 a.m. ET as Yellen's speech and growth data boosted stocks. S&P 500 futures were 0.3 percent higher.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Odd Lots Podcast: Welcome aboard Starship Bank.
- The alchemist who turned toxic assets into gold at Citigroup.
- Draghi smashed corporate bond yields before a bond was bought.
- Life's tricky when you're a hedge fund that can't hedge.
- World's safest market beset by most volatility since 2008 crisis.
- Crops rot while Trump-led immigration backlash idles farm lobby.
- Valeant cuts 2016 earnings forecast under new CEO Papa.