Mexico’s Peso Misses Out on Emerging-Market Rally Amid U.S. Woes

  • Peso is worst performer among developing nations this month
  • U.S. jobs data is damping outlook for Mexican growth, rates

Mexico’s peso is missing out on the rally in emerging-market currencies.

As South Africa’s rand, Hungary’s forint and Brazil’s real lead gains this month stoked by increasing conviction that the U.S. won’t raise interest rates later in June as well as a jump in commodity prices, the peso is the only developing-nation currency among 24 tracked by Bloomberg that has weakened since the end of May.

Signs of a cooling labor market in the U.S. -- the same data that’s reducing expectations for interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve -- is weighing on the currency from Mexico, which sends a majority of its exports north of the border. Expectations of slower growth in Mexico are also cutting the chances that Banco de Mexico will increase borrowing costs, reducing the attractiveness of the country’s fixed-income securities.

“Markets are likely reassessing potential rate hikes by Banxico,” said Juan Carlos Alderete, a foreign-exchange analyst at Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB.

The U.S. added just 38,000 jobs in May, the worst reading since 2010.

The peso, the most liquid emerging-market currency in the world, has fallen 0.6 percent this month. The rand is up 5.4 percent and the real and forint have strengthened 3 percent. Since April, the Mexican peso has fallen 7.5 percent, the fourth-worst performance among about 150 currencies tracked worldwide by Bloomberg.

The peso gained 0.1 percent Monday to 18.5722 per dollar as of 11:14 a.m. in New York.

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