Summer Heat on Hold for West Europe as Normal June Forecastby
Scandinavia may get above-average temperatures next month
Power prices trade at lowest for season in more than 8 years
A hot start for summer in west Europe is on hold as temperatures for the first month of the season are forecast to stick to seasonal averages.
June weather will be in line with or slightly above normal levels in west Europe, according to five of eight forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg News, while five said the Nordic region will get warmer-than-average weather. Temperatures in May were near normal in the west, while central and eastern areas ended above average, AccuWeather Inc. data show.
“The start of June will be on the cooler side for western Europe, mainly in eastern U.K. into France,” Tyler Roys, a meteorologist at AccuWeather in State College, Pennsylvania, said by e-mail. “It will be quite warm for Scandinavia.”
The meteorological summer starts in June when warmer weather and longer daylight hours typically cut demand for gas and electricity, while increased supply from solar generation puts further pressure on prices. Month-ahead power prices in Germany, France and the U.K. are trading at the lowest for the time of year since at least 2007 when Bloomberg began tracking the data.
June will be 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degree Fahrenheit) above average in central and east Europe next month, according to Joe D’Aleo, the chief meteorologist at Weatherbell Analytics LLC. Whatever heat there is won’t be dry, with “generous showers” forecast from France and across southern Germany to eastern Europe, he said.
There may be a warm spell early next week for central and west Europe, while temperatures in Scandinavia may rise as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal, according to MeteoGroup U.K. Ltd. That would boost gas demand for power generation as people switch on fans and cooling equipment, Moses Rahnama, an analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. in London, said by e-mail. Gas consumption in the U.K. in May was in line with the previous year, he said.
Temperatures in the Nordic region are forecast to average 14.6 degrees Celsius next week, or 0.9 degree higher than the 10-year average, according to Weather Co. data using the Global Forecast System, or GFS, model. Northwest Europe is expected to be 2.2 degrees above the 10-year average next week, the data show.
Solar generation in Germany is predicted to peak at 19.9 gigawatts on June 8, which compares with a record 26.8 gigawatts on May 8, according to data from Bloomberg and the European Energy Exchange AG.
Forecasters at Marex Spectron Group Ltd. and MDA Information Systems LLC expect July to be near seasonal norms for western Europe, with warmer-than-average conditions in the east. Further ahead, the U.K. will be colder than usual through August, according to The Weather Co.